Líbia - conflitos pós Khadafi

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Re: Líbia - conflitos pós Khadafi
« Responder #75 em: Maio 28, 2020, 12:55:37 pm »
https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/05/20/mastermind-of-blue-homeland-to-steal-greek-maritime-space-resigns/

Mastermind of “Blue Homeland” to steal Greek maritime space resigns

Turkish media has been full of speculation of a potential coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, including from state-run Anadolu Agency, and other major outlets like Sabah and Haberturk. Erdoğan already survived a 2016 coup attempt against him that he blames on his ex-ally, Fethullah Gülen, who leads the FETÖ Islamic movement. It is likely that Erdoğan will conduct another purge of the Turkish military.

Although the 2016 coup was orchestrated mostly by the Air Force, it appears that one of the first victims could have been Rear Admiral Cihat Yaycı. On May 15, Yaycı was demoted from the Chief of Staff’s to the General Staff, prompting him to resign from the military completely on Monday. Although some speculated it could have been because of the coup rumours circulating, Yaycı proved to be one of the most loyal Chief of Staff’s to Erdoğan and played a significant role in purging so-called FETÖ elements from the Turkish military.

It is likely that Yaycı was actually demoted because of Turkey’s complete failure to project its power in the Eastern Mediterranean. Yaycı is known as the architect of Turkey’s “Blue Homeland” theory that aims to annex Greece’s Eastern Aegean islands and maritime space. To achieve the “Blue Homeland,” Ankara in November 2019, with recommendation from Yaycı, sealed the “Marine Jurisdictions” maritime boundary delimitation deal with Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood Government of National Accords (GNA) to split Greek maritime space between Turkey and Libya.

A detailed report by New Economy found that “Turkey’s probability of bankruptcy is extremely high,” along with its three big banks of Garanti, Akbank and the Mustafa Kemal Atatürk-founded İşbank. “The country’s commercial banks, its last stronghold, have dried up from foreign exchange currency,” meaning that Turkey has nearly no money for its import and export companies.

Another report found that failed wars against Libya and Syria have been a major problem for its economy, making Turkey’s bankruptcy probability over 30% in the forthcoming period, putting them behind only Venezuela and Argentina, but “without having the US embargo that Venezuela has, nor the vast debt that Argentina brings.”

Mostly startling however for Turkey is that it has to find $80 billion by August, according to New Economy, or else it faces bankruptcy.

“There is also the additional 0.5-1 billion dollar cost per month for the wars in Syria and Libya, which seems to exacerbate the existing situation, leading to a huge state budget hole and escalating the probabilities of bankruptcy,” the report said.

Os turcos para sair desta alhada vão ter de negociar com a UE e os EUA.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/05/turkey-israel-egypt-libya-uae-ankara-moderate-diplomacy.html

While the COVID-19 pandemic has badly aggravated its economic woes, Ankara feels pressed to open new chapters with estranged partners, trying to turn this extraordinary global turmoil into an opportunity. Atop gestures to the United States, Ankara has asserted commitment to its ties with the European Union and messaging with Israel has warmed amid rising stakes in the energy rivalry in the eastern Mediterranean.
Not all of those steps have underlying economic rationales. Since the botched coup attempt in 2016, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been increasingly surrounded by Euroasianists who support Ankara’s drift away from the West and are said to be influential in the military. Erdogan appears fearful now that this could trigger a fresh coup scenario that would bring his own end; hence, another reason to seek a reset with Washington.
The COVID-19 pandemic came as a godsend in this respect, providing the pretext for Turkey to postpone the activation of the Russian S-400 air defense systems, which was scheduled for April. The postponement makes it much easier for President Donald Trump to maintain his lenient attitude toward Erdogan in the face of congressional pressure for sanctions. And as a gesture of solidarity against the pandemic, Ankara sent medical gear to Washington in late April. In an accompanying letter to Trump, Erdogan said regional developments, especially in Syria and Libya, “have shown how important it is to maintain the Turkey-US alliance and cooperation in the strongest way.”
Furthermore, former Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Isik told a panel in Washington on May 13 that Turkey’s ties with Russia “are not strategic but tactical” — a statement that was certainly not detached from the current air in Ankara. Previously, government officials did describe ties with Russia as a “strategic partnership.”
 

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FoxTroop

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Re: Líbia - conflitos pós Khadafi
« Responder #76 em: Junho 08, 2020, 09:21:51 am »
Os egipcios estão, desde ontem, a concentrar carros de combate e artilharia na fronteira com a Líbia. As probabilidades de aquilo escalar estão a subir exponencialmente.

https://geopolitics.news/africa/sisi-going-to-war/
 
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Lusitan

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Re: Líbia - conflitos pós Khadafi
« Responder #77 em: Junho 19, 2020, 04:03:21 pm »
https://euobserver.com/foreign/148704

France and Turkey fracture Nato on Libya

Nato is to investigate French allegations that Turkish warships targeted a French one in a confrontation over the Libya conflict, which has divided allies.
"The incident in the Mediterranean [Sea] was addressed in the meeting by several allies", Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said after Nato defence ministers held video-talks on Thursday (18 June).
"Nato authorities are investigating the incident", Nato head Jens Stoltenberg said.
"We have made sure that Nato military authorities are investigating the incident to bring full clarity to what happened," he said.

Turkish warships locked their weapons systems on to a French frigate called the Courbet, which was part of a Nato monitoring mission called Sea Guardian, on 10 June, according to France.
And they did it in order to slip through yet another illegal shipment of arms to Turkey's ally in the Libya civil war, the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), France said.
"Turkey's support for the Government of National Accord's offensive goes directly against the efforts to secure a ceasefire, which we support," the French foreign ministry also said on Wednesday.
"This support is aggravated by the hostile and unacceptable actions of Turkish naval forces toward Nato allies," it said.
"This conduct, like all foreign interference in the Libyan conflict, must cease," it added.
And France had the support of eight other Nato countries against Turkey, the French defence minister, Florence Parly, told her parliament on Thursday.
The Courbet incident was the latest in a line of irritants between Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Western friends.

But, at the same time, France's complaint on "foreign interference" in Libya must have looked like crocodile tears in the Nato talks.
Turkey might be violating a UN arms embargo, but, at least, it was fighting on the side of the EU and UN-recognised GNA.

Meanwhile, French special forces have been fighting alongside a warlord from eastern Libya, Khalifa Haftar, in a hybrid alliance involving also Russian mercenaries and African militias.
And if Turkey is to face a Nato inquiry about the Courbet incident, then France's ally, Haftar, also faces tough questions after a medical charity, the Red Crescent, last week, discovered mass graves in formerly Haftar-controlled zones, which the GNA had liberated with Turkish support.
French diplomats declined to speak to EUobserver about the blatant war crime.
But the French foreign ministry, earlier this week, told French media in Paris: "The discovery of mass graves in Tarhouna [a Libyan town] is deeply shocking".
"A thorough investigation must be conducted into this very serious matter and those responsible must be brought to justice", it said.
It remains to be seen how or if any Tarhouna probe goes ahead.
But Italy, the other main European power in the region, said on Wednesday: "In line with the recent statements of UN secretary general Antonio Guterres ... Italy calls for an independent and transparent inquiry in order to identify perpetrators and hold them accountable".

For his part, Stoltenberg did not mention Tarhouna on Thursday.
But he noted, in more general terms, that: "Nato, of course, supports the implementation of UN decisions, including UN arms embargoes".
"We also support the efforts of the UN to find a peaceful, negotiated solution to the conflict," he said.
The rival Libyan authorities, and their foreign backers, have been waging war for the past six years, in what has come to replace Syria and Ukraine as the most urgent crisis in Europe's neighbourhood.
But prospects of a "peaceful, negotiated solution" seemed dimmer than ever, with Italy, this week, also embedding military experts, to help clear mines, with the GNA-Turkey forces, multiplying the number of Nato divisions on the crisis and foreign boots on the battlefield.

 

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Get_It

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Re: Líbia - conflitos pós Khadafi
« Responder #78 em: Junho 20, 2020, 12:08:29 am »
Se as coisas não mudarem a médio-prazo, a Turquia vai acabar por ser uma nova ameaça para a NATO e a Europa.

Cumprimentos,
:snip: :snip: :Tanque:
 
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Lightning

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Re: Líbia - conflitos pós Khadafi
« Responder #79 em: Junho 20, 2020, 01:38:43 am »
Parece-me que a Turquia quer ser um "player" autónomo na região, fazendo acordos com a Europa, Rússia, Egipto, etc, tentando ganhar vantagens aqui e ali.

É o resultado do enfraquecimento dos EUA e da Europa, outros sentem que têm espaço de manobra para ir atrás das próprias ambições, não se sentem obrigados a se juntar a um lado para protecção.
 

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HSMW

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Re: Líbia - conflitos pós Khadafi
« Responder #80 em: Junho 22, 2020, 12:04:12 am »
http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=HSMW

"Tudo pela Nação, nada contra a Nação."
 
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typhonman

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Artigo 308º

Traição à Pátria

Quem, por meio de violência, ameaça de violência, usurpação ou abuso de funções de soberania:

a) Tentar separar da Mãe-Pátria, ou entregar a país estrangeiro ou submeter à soberania estrangeira, todo o território português ou parte dele
 
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Lusitan

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Re: Líbia - conflitos pós Khadafi
« Responder #82 em: Julho 08, 2020, 10:50:51 am »
https://www.cavok.com.br/jatos-rafale-de-forca-aerea-estrangeira-desconhecida-atacam-alvos-turcos-em-base-aerea-na-libia


França vs Turquia?  ::)

Para haver essa afirmação por parte da Turquia é porque existem sinais de radar para confirmar a origem dos aviões. É sabido que os AWACS turcos têm estado em acção no Mediterrâneo em apoio à GNA. No entanto, para terem tido a capacidade de abater sistemas de radar sem terem sido detectados, tanto por radares terrestres como pelos AWACS, seria estranho terem vindo de França, a não ser que tenham tido o OK para sobrevoar a Tunísia (o que é possível).
No entanto, parece-me mais certo que tenham sido os egípcios a atacar. Estão mais dispostos a mostrar aos turcos que não estão a fazer bluff em relação a Sirte e al Jufra.
 

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Lightning

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Re: Líbia - conflitos pós Khadafi
« Responder #83 em: Julho 08, 2020, 11:09:23 pm »
seria estranho terem vindo de França, a não ser que tenham tido o OK para sobrevoar a Tunísia (o que é possível).

Os Rafale Franceses não precisam de descolar da França.
Onde anda o PA Charles de Gaulle?
« Última modificação: Julho 08, 2020, 11:09:47 pm por Lightning »
 

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Re: Líbia - conflitos pós Khadafi
« Responder #84 em: Julho 09, 2020, 01:14:05 pm »
seria estranho terem vindo de França, a não ser que tenham tido o OK para sobrevoar a Tunísia (o que é possível).

Os Rafale Franceses não precisam de descolar da França.
Onde anda o PA Charles de Gaulle?

Da última vez que soube dele estava em Toulon parado no mês passado.
 

 

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