IT MIGHT have been a moment of hope: an internationally negotiated ceasefire that would lead to a political deal to end a war that has probably killed nearly half a million people and turned millions more into refugees. The accord was thrashed out by America and Russia on February 12th in the wings of the annual Munich Security Conference, endorsed by the 17-nation International Syria Support Group—a cruel misnomer if ever there was one. Its chances of success were never good.Humanitarian aid to besieged towns was supposed to be the first part of the deal, followed by a “cessation of hostilities” within a week. There are some signs of the former—the UN announced an agreement with the regime on February 16th for access to seven towns, perhaps including air-drops into Deir al-Zor, a city largely held by Islamic State (IS). On February 17th some aid convoys began to roll out of Damascus. But there remains virtually no prospect of a ceasefire.Nobody should be surprised, given the cheerful assertion by Sergei Lavrov, Russian’s foreign minister, that, despite signing the agreement, Russia would continue its air strikes against those it regards as “terrorists”. That is an elastic term. Jabhat al-Nusra (JAN), al-Qaeda’s powerful Syrian arm, fights alongside many other forces, both jihadist outfits and less extreme ones supported by the West, so Russia feels justified in bombing just about any rebels it chooses.Since Russia’s intervention at the end of September, supposedly to attack IS and JAN, the dynamics on the ground have been transformed. Once close to collapse, the regime of Bashar al-Assad is now confident of its survival and intent on regaining control of more territory. Pro-Assad forces are encircling the rebel-held parts of Aleppo, once Syria’s biggest city. Why should he and Mr Putin stop now?The only puzzle is what John Kerry, America’s secretary of state, thought he could achieve through his agreement with Mr Lavrov—except, perhaps, to expose Russian cynicism. As John McCain, the chairman of the Senate armed services committee, put it: “This is diplomacy in the service of military aggression. And it is working because we are letting it.”In the few days since the Munich agreement, the war has, if anything, widened and intensified. On February 15th nearly 50 civilians were killed when missiles hit rebel-held areas of Syria. At least 14 were killed in the northern town of Azaz when missiles hit two hospitals and a school where refugees were sheltering. Missiles also struck a hospital in Marat Numan, in Idlib province, south of Aleppo (see map). In all, five medical facilities were targeted. The UN condemned the attacks as a violation of international law. Turkey’s foreign ministry accused Russia of “an obvious war crime”.
