F-15EX and F-35A: The Future of American Air Superiorityhttps://warontherocks.com/2019/05/f-15ex-and-f-35a-the-future-of-american-air-superiority/Recommendations
If the Air Force wants to address F-15C fleet health and readiness concerns while maintaining current capacity and capability, it should purchase F-15EX as quickly as possible. Completely divesting the F-15C fleet by 2030 and replacing entirely with F-15EX could achieve $300 million in savings by 2040 and ensure operational aircraft are available to support the National Defense Strategy.
If operating in highly contested environments is the primary and overriding concern, F-35As will provide the most capability, although with significantly diminished weapons capacity and future weapon integration challenges. Moreover, replacing F-15Cs with F-35As will require a multi-year installation transition period, during which current F-15C squadron readiness and fighter capacity will decrease until F-35A procurement and retraining are completed and base infrastructure is built. This course of action assumes high risk in the near term by accepting decreased fighter capacity and readiness. If all F-15C aircraft can be divested by 2030 and F-35A operation and sustainment costs continue to decrease, this approach could return on investment by 2045.
The optimal solution may include a mix of F-15EX and F-35A to replace the F-15C. This involves starting F-15EX procurement immediately to address F-15C readiness concerns and assess the viability of transitioning some, but not all, F-15C squadrons to the F-35A. If the assessment is positive, the Air Force could begin the 3–5-year transition cycle to build infrastructure supporting the F-35A and cross-train personnel at selected bases. Additional F-15EX and F-35A aircraft would then be purchased between 2025–2029 to complete the divestment of the aging F-15C fleet. While this will result in high procurement costs, the Air Force will return on its investment close to 2040 by divesting the F-15C and its high annual operating cost. The F-15EX will provide superior firepower and magazine capacity to complement the advantages of stealth provided by the F-35A and F-22. This option spreads procurement costs over several budget cycles, addresses readiness and capacity concerns, provides increased capability, allows time for F-35A basing to establish required infrastructure, and lowers annual operating costs by getting rid of 40-year-old fighters.
There are costs, risks, and readiness concerns with any choice. Fourth-generation aircraft provide unique capabilities such as large weapon capacity and external carriage for future weapons and sensors which will complement fifth-generation fighters, enabling both airframes to use their most lethal capabilities. Fourth-generation aircraft will continue to preserve finite resources by sustaining fighter capacity in a much more cost-effective way than fifth-generation aircraft can.
The F-15C has performed spectacularly over the past 40 years and helped to establish American air superiority as a certainty in modern conflict. Yet, air superiority is not guaranteed in future conflict against rising powers. F-15C aircraft need to be replaced and new capabilities developed to enable U.S. warfighters to dominate future adversaries. An initial purchase of the F-15EX will help cycle out old and expensive aircraft and restore readiness, all while improving capacity and capability. Going forward, additional purchases of F-15EXs and F-35As should be seriously considered. If the Air Force and Congress miss this opportunity and are left with a broken fleet of F-15C aircraft, they will have failed the nation, the joint force, and America’s warfighters.