Russia’s Battlefield Woes in Ukraine
Photo: Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu via Getty ImagesBrief by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe
Published June 3, 2025
The Issue
Russian military forces have failed to effectively advance along multiple axes in Ukraine, seized limited territory, lost substantial quantities of equipment relative to Ukraine, and suffered remarkably high rates of fatalities and casualties since January 2024, according to new CSIS data. While some policymakers and experts argue that Russia holds “all the cards” in the Ukraine war, the data suggests that the Russian military has performed relatively poorly on the battlefield.
There has been a growing chorus of policymakers and analysts who argue that the Russian military holds the initiative in the war in Ukraine and will likely triumph. As one U.S. academic contended, “the United States and the West more generally and Ukraine have lost in the war over Ukraine,” and “the Russians are going to win.”1 Dmytro Kuleba, a former Ukrainian foreign minister, remarked that unless the current trajectory changes, “we will lose this war.”2 In addition, some U.S. policymakers have concluded that Russia has “all the cards.”3
Not surprisingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin has boasted that Russia is decisively winning on the battlefield: “Overall, we can clearly see what is happening right now. Our troops have the strategic initiative along the entire contact line.” He continued that “we have reason to believe that we are set to finish them off. I think that people in Ukraine need to realize what is going on.”4 Andrei Kartapolov, head of the defense committee in the Duma, Russia’s lower legislative chamber, followed Putin’s comments with threats that if Ukraine did not accede to Russia’s maximalist demands in peace negotiations, Ukrainian leaders would be forced to listen to “the language of the Russian bayonet.”5
To better understand the state of the war and Russia’s battlefield performance, this analysis asks: How successful has the Russian military been in achieving the Kremlin’s objectives? What factors have contributed to this outcome? To answer these questions, this assessment examines several indicators of Russia’s battlefield performance: the relative rate of advance of Russian forces, the size of Russian territorial gains, the scope of equipment losses, and fatality and overall casualty rates. The evidence suggests that Russia has largely failed to achieve its primary objectives and has suffered high costs.
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https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-battlefield-woes-ukraine
