Artigo CNN (A guerra no futuro )

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Artigo CNN (A guerra no futuro )
« em: Fevereiro 24, 2015, 09:45:36 am »
Editor's Note: Douglas A. Ollivant, a senior fellow at New America, served as director for Iraq at the National Security Council during the Bush and Obama administrations. He is senior vice president of Mantid International LLC, a consulting firm that has business interests in the south of Iraq, including security, defense and aerospace clients. This is the seventh in a series, "Big Ideas for a New America," in which the think tank New America spotlights experts' solutions to the nation's greatest challenges. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author. The New America think tank is holding conferences Monday through Wednesday in Washington on cyber security and the future of war, to be live streamed below.

 (CNN)—Everything you think you know about the "future of war" is wrong.

An elite consensus on the "New Way of War" has been emerging for some time now. Among defense policy experts, think tanks, echoed at Aspen and Davos, the way forward seems clear. The future belongs to cyberwarfare and includes a terrorism problem that will be dealt with by drones and SEALs, and the need to be prepared for the possibility, however remote, of a large-scale naval and aviation campaign in the Far East against a rising China.

This new American way of war—clean, precise, and (unless things go very bad with China) low-casualty -- seems to capture the persistent technologist mood of America.

Unfortunately, reality seems uninterested in conforming to this strongly held belief. We see instead the future of warfare unfolding in a very different way: as the Israelis struggle against a well-trained and organized resistance movement, Hamas, in Gaza; as ISIS fights against not only the Arab Iraqis and Syrians, but also in Iraqi Kurdistan, Lebanon and even Jordan; while in the Ukraine, we see local separatists being either assisted, or used as "useful idiots," by the forces of President Vladimir Putin's Russia. In short, these are not the wars we were anticipating.

And yet here they are. So what are some common characteristics of these wars? And how should the United States respond to this new reality?

The ISIS terror threat

The ISIS terror threat 47 photos

A woman looks at her destroyed home after returning to the village of Al-Mansuriya, Iraq, on Saturday, February 14.

Safi al-Kasasbeh, right, receives condolences from tribal leaders at his home village near Karak, Jordan, on Wednesday, February 4. Al-Kasasbeh's son, <a href="" target="_blank">Jordanian pilot Moath al-Kasasbeh,</a> was burned alive in a video that was recently released by ISIS militants. Jordan is one of a handful of Middle Eastern nations taking part in the U.S.-led military coalition against ISIS.

A Kurdish marksman looks over a destroyed area of Kobani, Syria, on Friday, January 30, after the city had been liberated from the ISIS militant group. Kobani, also known as Ayn al-Arab, had been under assault by ISIS since mid-September.

Smoke billows in Kirkuk, Iraq, as Kurdish Peshmerga fighters take position against ISIS militants on January 30. The aim of ISIS is to create an Islamic state across Sunni areas of Iraq and in Syria.

Kurdish people celebrate in Suruc, Turkey, near the Turkish-Syrian border, after ISIS militants were expelled from Kobani on Tuesday, January 27.

Collapsed buildings are seen in Kobani on January 27 after Kurdish forces took control of the town from ISIS.

Junko Ishido, mother of Japanese journalist Kenji Goto, reacts during a news conference in Tokyo on Friday, January 23. ISIS would later kill Goto and another Japanese hostage, Haruna Yukawa.

ISIS militants are seen through a rifle's scope during clashes with Peshmerga fighters in Mosul, Iraq, on Wednesday, January 21.

An elderly Yazidi man arrives in Kirkuk after being released by ISIS on Saturday, January 17. The militant group released about 200 Yazidis who were held captive for five months in Iraq. Almost all of the freed prisoners were in poor health and bore signs of abuse and neglect, Kurdish officials said.

Smoke billows behind an ISIS sign during an Iraqi military operation to regain control of the town of Sadiyah, about 95 kilometers (60 miles) north of Baghdad, on Tuesday, November 25.

Fighters from the Free Syrian Army and the Kurdish People's Protection Units join forces to fight ISIS in Kobani on Wednesday, November 19.

A picture taken from Turkey shows smoke rising after ISIS militants fired mortar shells toward an area controlled by Syrian Kurdish fighters near Kobani on Monday, November 3.

Iraqi special forces search a house in Jurf al-Sakhar, Iraq, on Thursday, October 30, after retaking the area from ISIS.

ISIS militants stand near the site of an airstrike near the Turkey-Syria border on Thursday, October 23. The United States and several Arab nations have been bombing ISIS targets in Syria to take out the militant group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters.

Kurdish fighters walk to positions as they combat ISIS forces in Kobani on Sunday, October 19.

A U.S. Air Force plane flies above Kobani on Saturday, October 18.

Heavy smoke rises in Kobani following an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on October 18.

Cundi Minaz, a female Kurdish fighter, is buried in a cemetery in the southeastern Turkish town of Suruc on Tuesday, October 14. Minaz was reportedly killed during clashes with ISIS militants in nearby Kobani.

Turkish police officers secure a basketball stadium in Suruc on October 14. Some Syrian Kurds were held there after crossing from Syria into Turkey. Tens of thousands of people fled Kobani to escape ISIS.

Kiymet Ergun, a Syrian Kurd, celebrates in Mursitpinar, Turkey, after an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition in Kobani on Monday, October 13.

Alleged ISIS militants stand next to an ISIS flag atop a hill in Kobani on Monday, October 6.

In this photo released by the U.S. Air Force on Saturday, October 4, a U.S. Navy jet is refueled in Iraqi airspace after conducting an airstrike against ISIS militants.

A Kurdish Peshmerga soldier who was wounded in a battle with ISIS is wheeled to the Zakho Emergency Hospital in Duhuk, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 30.

Syrian Kurds wait near a border crossing in Suruc as they wait to return to their homes in Kobani on Sunday, September 28.

Tomahawk missiles, intended for ISIS targets in Syria, fly above the Persian Gulf after being fired by the USS Philippine Sea in this image released by the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, September 23.

Turkish Kurds clash with Turkish security forces during a protest near Suruc on Monday, September 22. According to <a href="" target="_blank">Time magazine</a>, the protests were over Turkey's temporary decision to close the border with Syria.

Syrian Kurds fleeing ISIS militants wait behind a fence in Suruc on Sunday, September 21.

A elderly man is carried after crossing the Syria-Turkey border near Suruc on Saturday, September 20.

A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter launches mortar shells toward ISIS militants in Zumar, Iraq, on Monday, September 15.

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS militant positions from their position on the top of Mount Zardak, east of Mosul, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 9.

Iraqi volunteer fighters celebrate breaking the Amerli siege on Monday, September 1. ISIS militants had surrounded Amerli, 70 miles north of Baquba, Iraq, since mid-June.

Kurdish Peshmerga forces stand guard at their position in the Omar Khaled village west of Mosul on Sunday, August 24.

Kurdish Peshmergas fight to regain control of the town of Celavle, in Iraq's Diyala province, on August 24.

Peshmerga fighters stand guard at Mosul Dam in northern Iraq on Thursday, August 21. With the help of U.S. military airstrikes, Kurdish and Iraqi forces<a href=""> retook the dam</a> from ISIS militants on August 18. A breach of the dam would have been catastrophic for millions of Iraqis who live downstream from it.

Displaced Iraqis receive clothes from a charity at a refugee camp near Feeshkhabour, Iraq, on Tuesday, August 19.

Peshmerga fighters inspect the remains of a car that reportedly belonged to ISIS militants and was targeted by a U.S. airstrike in the village of Baqufa, north of Mosul, on August 18.

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS in Khazair, Iraq, on Thursday, August 14.

Aziza Hamid, a 15-year-old Iraqi girl, cries for her father while she and some other Yazidi people are flown to safety Monday, August 11, after a dramatic rescue operation at Iraq's Mount Sinjar. A CNN crew was on the flight, which took diapers, milk, water and food to the site where as many as 70,000 people were trapped by ISIS. But only a few of them were able to fly back on the helicopter with the Iraqi Air Force and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.

Thousands of Yazidis are escorted to safety by Kurdish Peshmerga forces and a People's Protection Unit in Mosul on Saturday, August 9.

Thousands of Yazidi and Christian people flee Mosul on Wednesday, August 6, after the latest wave of ISIS advances.

A Baiji oil refinery burns after an alleged ISIS attack in northern Selahaddin, Iraq, on Thursday, July 31.

A Syrian rebel fighter lies on a stretcher at a makeshift hospital in Douma, Syria, on Wednesday, July 9. He was reportedly injured while fighting ISIS militants.

Peshmerga fighters clean their weapons at a base in Tuz Khormato on June 25.

New army recruits gather in Najaf, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters.

Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12.

Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10.

Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10.

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First, they are in general low-tech and manpower intensive

Low-tech does not mean "no-tech," and even a 40-year old Soviet tank can be a significant weapon if one is not prepared for it. Further, there will be "islands" of technology that are equivalent or even superior to that used by Western militaries. But this is not a universally high technology force. This manpower is also highly trained, or at least has a critical core that is highly trained, whether ISIS cadres or the "little green men" (Russian intelligence officers) of the Ukraine. We should expect to encounter professionals.

Second, they intermingle with the population

Crisis in Ukraine

Crisis in Ukraine 42 photos

A man holds a Ukrainian flag as he covers a victim of an explosion in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Sunday, February 22. The explosion during a peaceful protest left two dead and 15 wounded. Fighting between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian rebels in the country has left more than 5,000 people dead since mid-April, according to the United Nations. A recent ceasefire appears to have faltered.

Investigators work at the site of the explosion, where the body of a victim is covered with a Ukrainian flag, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on February 22.

Pro-Russian rebels stationed in Gorlivka, Ukraine, launch missiles on Wednesday, February 18.

Pro-Russian separatists take position near Uglegorsk, Ukraine, on February 18.

An army ambulance damaged in recent shelling lies by a road near Svitlodarsk, Ukraine, on Sunday, February 15.

Ukrainian servicemen play with a soccer ball on a road between Svitlodarsk and Debaltseve, Ukraine, on February 15.

A woman salvages items February 15 from the rubble of a destroyed clinic where she had worked in Opytne, Ukraine.

People carry a refrigerator through a balcony at an apartment building that was damaged in recent shelling in Svitlodarsk on February 15.

A Ukrainian military vehicle is parked among trees along the road to Debaltseve on February 15.

A recent ceasefire was brokered during marathon talks in Minsk, Belarus. From left, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President François Hollande and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko gather before negotiations begin on Wednesday, February 11.

People stand beside the body of a woman killed during shelling in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on Tuesday, February 10.

A volunteer gets a medical checkup at a military base for pro-Russian rebels February 10 in Donetsk, Ukraine.

A pro-Russian rebel walks past a car destroyed during shelling in Donetsk on Monday, February 9.

Ukrainian volunteer fighters and policemen arrest two men in Kiev, Ukraine, on February 9. The men allegedly arrived from Donetsk and were suspected of participating in pro-Russian rebel activities and organizing terrorist attacks in the Ukrainian capital.

Residents unload humanitarian aid in the town of Debaltseve on Friday, February 6.

A man rides a bicycle in Vuhlehirsk, Ukraine, on February 6.

A pro-Russian rebel guards a former Ukrainian army checkpoint outside Vuhlehirsk on Thursday, February 5.

A child waits on a bus to leave Debaltseve on Tuesday, February 3, after increased fighting in the region.

A pro-Russian rebel tank rolls along a road near Donetsk on Monday, February 2.

A man stands next to his car in Donetsk on Sunday, February 1, after it was destroyed by shelling.

The body of a civilian killed during shelling lies on the ground in Donetsk on Friday, January 30.

An injured soldier is wheeled on a stretcher outside of a hospital in Artemivsk, Ukraine, on January 30.

A rebel comforts the wife of a civilian killed in shelling in Donetsk on January 30. Artillery fire in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk killed at least 12 civilians that afternoon.

People in Mariupol, Ukraine, pour soil into the grave of a recent shelling victim on Monday, January 26.

Ukrainian servicemen prepare ammunition at a position on the front line near Mariupol on January 26.

A man injured during shelling in Mariupol sits in an emergency hospital on January 26.

A piece of an exploded missile sits lodged in the ground outside an apartment building in the Vostochniy district of Mariupol on Sunday, January 25.

A resident walks by a burning building in Mariupol on Saturday, January 24.

A pro-Russian rebel takes cover from shelling in the Kievsky district of Donetsk on Thursday, January 22.

People in downtown Donetsk react as Ukrainian prisoners of war are handed over by pro-Russian rebels on January 22.

A trolleybus is damaged in Donetsk's Lenin District after its station was hit by a shell on January 22.

A rebel takes aim while protecting a supply position in the Kievsky district of Donetsk on January 22.

Rubble and debris cover the airport in Donetsk on Wednesday, January 21.

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Vladimir Bovrichev cries next to the body of his 4-year-old son, Artiam, during Artiam's funeral on the outskirts of Donetsk on Tuesday, January 20. The boy was killed during a Ukrainian artillery strike.

Women sit in a shelter during a battle in Donetsk on Sunday, January 18.

A building hit by Ukrainian artillery is seen in the Voroshilovsky area of Donetsk on January 18.

Men from the Azov Volunteer Battalion board a bus in Kiev to join the fight against the rebels on Saturday, January 17.

Rebels sit atop a tank at a checkpoint north of Luhansk, Ukraine, on Wednesday, January 14.

A Ukrainian soldier looks down from a military truck at the Donetsk airport on Tuesday, January 6. The airport has been the scene of some of the fiercest fighting in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko gives a speech as he hands over new military equipment to forces near the city of Ghytomyr, Ukraine, on Monday, January 5.

A Ukrainian volunteer fighter fires a machine gun at pro-Russian rebels near the village of Pisky, Ukraine, on Saturday, January 3.

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This is "war amongst the people," with all the messiness, ambiguity, byzantine relationships and background noise associated with a population center. Much of the combat will occur in cities (warfare has urbanized along with the population), but in more rural areas, towns and villages will still be important.

Finally, they occur outside the bounds of normal nation-state conflict

Gaza isn't really a state and both Ukrainian separatists and ISIS, respectively, have stripped Kiev and Baghdad of effective control of the territory they operate within. This is not to say that state boundaries are unimportant, because they are (that Iraq has invited airstrikes against ISIS, while Syria has not, is a key differentiator), but that they are of lesser importance. But many to most future conflicts will occur in these spaces that belong to no state, or only tenuously to a state.

Douglas A. Ollivant

Douglas A. Ollivant

The United States has a lamentable tendency to "mirror image" its rivals. In this thinking, because we spend significant time and resources developing viruses to disable Iranian centrifuges, our enemies must be making parallel efforts. And perhaps they are. But to date, what we have seen (in Georgia, Ukraine and Iraq alike) is a much simpler approach to cyberwarfare — the distributed denial of service attack.

This is, as many readers will know, the "brute force" form of cyberattack, overwhelming a network by sending an excessive amount of data to the target, effectively consuming available resources and leaving none for legitimate connections. While there is some art in getting the machines arrayed to attack (or in outsourcing it to cybergangs), the attack itself is just one of mass. So yes, it's cyberwarfare, but of the most primitive and least technical kind.

Expect more crises

Fighting Boko Haram in Cameroon

Fighting Boko Haram in Cameroon 8 photos

Cameroonian forces are seen in Mabass, a village in northern Cameroon that overlooks a Boko Haram base in Madagali, Nigeria. Boko Haram militants <a href="" target="_blank">attacked Mabass and the village of Makxy</a> on January 18. Boko Haram is an <a href="">Islamist militant group</a> that has been waging a campaign of terror aimed at instituting its extreme version of Sharia law. Much of its violence has taken place in Nigeria. But neighboring countries, such as Cameroon and Chad, have also been affected.

Burned-out cars line the streets of Fotokol, Cameroon.

A Cameroonian soldier points his gun across the El Beid Bridge into Gambaru, Nigeria. Gambaru is considered one of the strongholds of Boko Haram.

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This picture shows a suspected Boko Haram insurgent who crossed the El Beid River in an attempt to infiltrate Cameroon.

This Boko Haram tank was destroyed by Chadian and Cameroonian troops.

Chadian troops head off to Gambaru on Thursday, February 12. Their truck is just about to cross the El Beid Bridge.

A Nigerian refugee holds her child at the Minawao Refugee Camp in northern Cameroon. She named her son Cameroon, a sort of tribute to the country that has given her a haven.

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We should continue to expect crises to emerge. Some will occur in areas where key U.S. interests are at stake. Others will happen on the periphery of U.S. national interest. But they will continue to tend to involve well-trained cadres, in contact with the population, and in areas without strong state control. In short, these combats will be remarkably ambiguous.

Allies may be in constant flux (for example, are the Sunni tribes facilitating ISIS or hoping for support in fighting them? The answer to both seems to be "yes.") and enemies may well melt into the population (a phenomenon that veterans of both Iraq and Afghanistan are quite familiar with). This will require remarkable flexibility from all involved, from the rifle squad to the National Security Council staff.

So what can the United States do to face an enemy that will not conform to our desires — that does not lend itself to the capabilities of Joint Special Operations Command or Cyber Command or the Seventh Fleet?

How to buy hardware

First, we need to rethink the way we go about buying our military hardware. Are we seeking to buy weapons that can face a near-peer opponent, or ones that will retain their utility against a trained, but lower-technology land-based opponent?

For example, one can question the utility of U.S. aircraft carriers in the South China Sea in a missile-rich environment. But the USS George H.W. Bush has been a very useful power-projection platform to launch F-18s for strikes against ISIS in Iraq, which thankfully has neither ground to sea missiles nor attack aircraft, to date.

Further, acquisition strategies must be retooled for the modern age. The debacles of both the F-35 aircraft and the Army's Distributed Common Ground System intelligence architecture are well documented. Cost over-runs have been coupled with performance shortfalls in both systems. While some human error and contractor misconduct may be involved, the bulk of the issues here are structural, and statutory.

The way that the United States does contracting — more concerned about being "fair" than getting the best product for the defense dollar — may have worked for producing lower-technology items, but falls far short for more complex weapons systems.

Rise of the 'Green Berets'

Second, we need to promote our forces who work best with allied forces in these spaces where the state is weak or nonexistent: the Army's Special Forces (popularly known as "Green Berets"). These forces have undergone significant neglect in the past decade, as the anti-terrorism capabilities of Joint Special Operations Command (SEAL Team Six and Delta Force) were seen as the most pressing need.

In both Iraq and Afghanistan, Special Forces teams were known to be tasked by their commands — or decide on their own — to pursue a more aggressive "kill and capture" mission, rather than work "by, with, and through" their indigenous partners. It will require cultural change (and likely an improved funding stream) inside the military to emphasize that these Special Forces teams — seen as considerably less glamorous than their Joint Special Operations Command counterparts — are the capability most needed for future warfare.

Third, we need to continue to focus on prepared and ready land power — our own rifle squads, companies and battalions who can do the dirty business themselves, if need be. Some of these situations may lend themselves to the use of indigenous land power (someone else's soldiers) supported by U.S. airpower (n.b. The USAF should be tasked to retain the capability to provide exactly this support). This will continue to be the preferred technique. But for in extremis situations, the United States must continue to have a reliable, well-trained, well-led and well-equipped ground force. Of these, training and leadership remain the most important. This is fortunate, as our technological advantage, particularly at the individual soldier and small-unit level, may be fleeting.

Commercial products (e.g. those supporting extreme sports) will be available to any international buyer, and many of these may give an edge to America's adversaries in the close fight. It will continue to be — as it ever was — difficult and realistic training under competent, seasoned leadership that will give U.S. land power its critical edge.

Decentralize information

Fourth, the Pentagon should focus on systems that push power and information to the "edge" of the system. We have lived in an age of extreme centralization of information. This has worked out only because the force of choice for the last decade, the SEALs and Deltas of Joint Special Operations Command, are considered a "national asset" and therefore have had access to this centralized information.

The forces of choice for the future, rifle companies and Special Forces detachments, will not be privileged with this access. We should think about systems that push information to their level. This may mean that forces at this level must be empowered to gather such information for themselves. For example, future warfare may privilege a force that has a UAV/drone that downloads the information directly to the user on the ground, rather than a UAV/drone that sends it to a central repository, and only secondarily to field users.

Fifth, many observers have pointed out that the military's traditional personnel management system has defects, both in recruiting and development. There are a host of suggestions, but any proposal that increases flexibility and expands the talent pool without degrading the necessity of producing leaders who can lead young men into combat should be seriously considered.

Long-standing suggestions to increase language training, allow for late entry and/or sabbaticals, increase technical skills, get input from subordinates on their leaders, and recruit outside traditional pools -- for instance, in Silicon Valley -- should all be seriously considered. All will be necessary for these coming ambiguous fights.

How war won't change

Finally, we need to regard with extreme skepticism those who believe that warfare has fundamentally changed in any real way. Yes, cyberwarfare has the potential to be real, but primarily to disrupt communications or perhaps sabotage infrastructure.

Let's be clear, it is a new capability that must be integrated into warfare, as was the combustion engine and the radio. But it doesn't fundamentally shift what war is and will be. Warfare has absorbed far more earth-shaking developments (airpower and nuclear weapons) without changing its fundamental character.

War will continue to be fought over issues of fear, honor and interest. Despite increasing automation, it will be fought primarily by young men (despite the increasing presence of older men and young women). The next war will likely be very recognizable to someone who fought in one millennia ago.

It is possible that our next war will resemble nothing that anyone has predicted, perhaps a naval battle over the Arctic, or — God forbid — a nuclear exchange. And yes, it is possible that war could emerge between China on one side and South Korea, Japan or even the United States on the other in the South China Sea, though it is not overstatement to claim that this would bring about the end of the world economy as we currently understand it. But the most likely outcome, barring some shock to the world system, is that future wars will strongly resemble those occurring today. ... index.html