Espanha mais rica que Alemanha e Reino Unido em 2025 graças a imigração
DE com Lusa
O economista-chefe do Deutsche Bank previu hoje que a Espanha seja mais rica que Alemanha e Reino Unido em 2025, graças a "uma onda massiva de imigração", em artigo divulgado no endereço electrónico da instituição.
Norbert Walter salienta que uma vantagem importante de Espanha neste contexto é a sua abertura aos cidadãos da América Latina e do Norte de Africa.
Esta previsão do economista insere-se num conjunto mais vasto, constante de um artigo subordinado ao tema da economia mundial no ano 2025.
O artigo baseia-se na sua contribuição para um debate promovido por uma cadeia televisiva alemã.
Walter salientou que "nos próximos 20 anos assistir-se-á à maior migração de sempre de populações" num mundo que contará com oito mil milhões de pessoas, um crescimento de 20% face aos actuais 6,5 mil milhões.
O acréscimo populacional basear-se-á nos países menos desenvolvidos, cuja população aumentará de 5,3 para 6,7 mil milhões, enquanto a dos países desenvolvidos se manterá em 1,2 mil milhões.
Esta manutenção quantitativa corresponde porém a mudanças nas composições populacionais, com Walter a exemplificar com a Alemanha, que deverá manter os 80 milhões de habitantes, "mas com muito menos alemães".
O cenário central da previsão inclui a permanência dos EUA como única super-potência, e a ascensão da Índia e da China, respectivamente, às segunda e terceira posições no 'ranking' internacional das economias.
Evolução contrária é esperada para África, que continuará a braços com a sida e o genocídio, enquanto a América Latina deve evoluir pior do que a Ásia e reduzir-se a uma fonte primária de matérias-primas.
Do Japão prevê que a idade mediana (a que divide a população em duas partes iguais) da população de 125 milhões seja de 50 anos, o que a colocará 20 anos acima da idade média da população mundial.
Walter não prevê que a situação seja resolúvel com a imigração, dados os obstáculos culturais com que os estrangeiros se defrontam no arquipélago, em especial a língua, falada e escrita, e a filosofia de vida.
Este envelhecimento populacional significará a queda do Japão para o quarto lugar.
Sobre a União Europeia, o economista do Deutsche Bank admite que o Reino Unido ainda a integre em 2025, caso em que contará, juntamente com os actuais Estados-membros, com a companhia da Suíça, Noruega e Turquia.
http://www.diarioeconomico.com/edicion/noticia/0,2458,647082,00.html
Informe sobre crecimiento de Deutsche Bank
A. Main results and analytical framework1. Growth centres 2020: India, Malaysia, China, as
well as Ireland, the US and SpainWith the help of Formel-G, our Foresight Model for Evaluating Longterm Growth, we carry out an in-depth test for 34 economies, which is theoretically and empirically substantiated and based on innovative trend analysis (see details from page 8 ). We are looking for countries posting high growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP, income) overall and on a per capita basis. In addition, a high level of GDP per capita and a history of low growth volatility makes a country even more attractive as a location for exports and investment. According to Formel-G, India, Malaysia and China will post the highest GDP growth rates overall during 2006-20, while Ireland, the US and Spain also offer high income levels and low volatility in the past.1
Growth stars among the emerging marketsThe star in our global growth ranking is
India, with an expected annual average rate of GDP growth of 5.5% over the years 2006 to 2020. This model forecast is roughly in line with the current consensus expectations. With a growth rate of 5.5%, real GDP doubles every 13 years. As a result, India will – in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms –take the place of Japan as the world’s third-largest economy behind the
US and China by the end of this decade. Strong population growth of 1.6% per annum over 2006-20 contributes significantly to overall GDP growth. But per capita GDP is also set to rise significantly, by 3.9%, as human capital will improve rapidly and India will probably continue to open strongly to the rest of the world. With that growth rate, per capita GDP growth doubles every 18 years. However, per capita income in India will still be the second lowest in our group of countries by 2020. Compared to Germany, India’s per capita income will rise from 10% today to 16% then.
Malaysia’s economy of 25 million inhabitants is set to continue the success of the last two decades. According to Formel-G, Malaysia’s average annual GDP growth is projected to be 5.4% over 2006-20 – almost as high as in much poorer India. At 3.6%, the rise in per capita GDP would match the growth rate of 1976 to 2000. By 2020 Malaysia’s economy will probably be larger than Belgium’s or Sweden’s (in purchasing power parities). In a few years’ time, its per capita income level in PPPs will be higher than Chile’s or Mexico’s.
In our overall growth ranking,
China comes in third place with projected annual GDP growth of 5.2% over the years 2006 to 2020. At that rate, China will not become the largest economy of the world by 2020. Growth will be even stronger at the beginning of the forecast period rates of initially almost 7% – albeit below the medium-term consensus forecast of 8% and the average rate of 10% of the past two decades. Trees won’t grow into the sky in China – and our model enables us to explain why. The growth differential between China and India stems only from the much slower population growth in China (0.8% p.a.), where the effects of two decades of one-child-policy become evident. Projected average income of the Chinese will rise by 4.4% annually, topping the rate of increase in India. By 2020 China’s per capita income in purchasing power parities is set to surpass that of Brazil and almost match Turkey’s level (see chart on the right).
Latin American countries rank at the bottom end of the growth league among the emerging markets. Mexico’s proximity to the US and open trade with the US market, enables it to rank just ahead of Argentina and Brazil. In all three countries the drivers of growth are rather weak even though per capita growth rates are set to improve compared to the past. Lack of data prevents us from fully including Russia in our framework. However, a noticeably shrinking population and high political uncertainty do not bode well for overall GDP growth going forward. DBR’s country experts put Russia’s growth potential in the coming years at roughly 4% – slower thereafter. Growth will be partly driven by the expected increase in energy prices, which should benefit Russia as a major exporter of oil and gas.
Growth ranking of OECD economies Growth rates are not everything. Current per capita income levels are also of major importance for the attractiveness of a country as a location especially for exports of up-market products. Furthermore, the closest trade and FDI links today are found among the rich economies. We have therefore produced a separate model ranking growth in OECD countries.3
Formel-G projects 3.8% average annual GDP growth in
Ireland over 2006-20, so it is set to remain the top performer among the OECD countries. The forecast of 1.1% population growth per annum is the highest among the OECD economies. GDP per capita will rise by almost 3% per year. However, a large share of the income generated in Ireland goes to foreigners, so the income of the average Irish is lower than the comparison of GDP levels would suggest. With a population of just 4.7 million in 2020, Ireland will have the second-lowest population in our group and is thus not too significant as a sales market.
The
USA show that even economies with high income levels can achieve high growth rates of per capita GDP. With GDP growth expected to reach 3% per year, the US ranks second among the rich countries, mainly because it remains at the forefront of technological progress. Thanks to population growth of 1% and per capita GDP growth of 2%, the US economy will continue to post the highest level of GDP overall and per capita in 2020.
Spain’s fundamentals, such as the expected rises in human capital and trade openness (bridge between Europe and Latin America and North
Africa), also point to solid growth ahead. The successes of the past 20 years are fundamentally justified: with annual per capita GDP growth expected to run at 2.8%, Spain surpasses all other European countries. If immigration continues at the same pace as in the last few years, overall growth could be even higher: the UN population forecasts included in our model have underestimated actual population growth by a full percentage point during the past years since immigration from North Africa and Latin America has overcompensated the low number of births.
Besides Spain, France and Austria will post the strongest economic expansion in Europe according to our growth ranking. This is attributable to solid population growth and strong fundamentals. In Italy a sharp rise in human capital contributes to strong per capita GDP growth. With a growth rate of 1.5%, Germany ranks at the lower end of the league table, while Switzerland marks the bottom at 0.7%.
