Despite U.S. Push, Most NATO Allies Fail to Fulfill Military-Spending GoalsEven as European military outlays rise, the majority of allies won’t meet 2%-of-GDP benchmark, officials sayBy Julian E. Barnes
BRUSSELS—Fewer than half of NATO’s 29 members have made plans to reach the alliance’s military-spending target, according to allied officials.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is expected to announce Tuesday that European military spending continues to rise. But the overall increase obscures the reality that many allies haven’t adopted plans, as they agreed to do last year at the insistence of the U.S., to increase such spending to the long-established alliance benchmark of 2% of their economic output.
Accentuating the shortfall, Washington plans to announce another increase in American defense spending in Europe. The U.S. will likely propose a spending increase of about $1 billion above the current annual $4.8 billion in military expenditure in Europe, according to people briefed on the plans.
The crew of a Portuguese C-130 military transport plane participating in a NATO exercise last year at an airbase in central Portugal.
The crew of a Portuguese C-130 military transport plane participating in a NATO exercise last year at an airbase in central Portugal. PHOTO: FRANCISCO LEONG/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis will address NATO defense ministers on Wednesday in Brussels and is expected to acknowledge the progress at increasing spending but say more is expected, allied officials said.
At the urging of the Trump administration last spring, NATO demanded allies submit spending plans by the end of 2017 outlining how each country planned to reach the 2% spending target by 2024.
To the frustration of the U.S., some countries submitted plans for only the next three years. Other countries’ plans extend to 2024 but fall short of reaching 2% of economic output.
About 14 countries have clear plans to reach 2% near the deadline, according to allied officials. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, isn’t among them, nor is Belgium, which hosts NATO headquarters in Brussels.
NATO has said that the U.S., U.K., Greece, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Romania and Lithuania are above or near the 2% target. France, Turkey, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Montenegro have plans to push their spending to the target.
Two other countries, Denmark and Norway, have plans for increased spending that would further critical NATO capabilities, including new F-35 fighter planes, air-defense frigates and sub-hunting planes. But the two countries are unlikely to hit the 2% target by 2024.
“We do not quite make the 2%,” said Michael Zilmer-Johns, Denmark’s ambassador to NATO. “But we fulfill all the other parameters, most importantly the NATO capability targets. Because, in our view, this is what it is all about.”
Complicating matters is Europe’s improving economy, which could temporarily knock some countries—including Poland and Romania—out of the 2% club or prevent them from joining it.
At a NATO meeting in May, President Donald Trump excoriated allies for failing to spend enough on defense. Since then he has said “money is pouring in” and taken credit for a spending turnaround.
In 2014, NATO allies agreed that all would “move toward” spending 2% of gross domestic product on defense over the ensuing decade. U.S. officials in Washington have treated the 2% as a hard commitment, irking some diplomats at the alliance’s Brussels headquarters who insist the precise pledge was only to make a good-faith effort to increase spending.
When allies agreed to submit the spending plans, NATO said it would also evaluate countries’ contributions to missions and needed capabilities.
NATO officials said more allies are boosting their equipment purchases. Allied diplomats said under the new plans, 23 of the 29 allies will spend 20% or more of their defense budget on military equipment.
Allies are also placing the laggards in different categories. Some countries, such as Spain and Portugal, aren’t set to reach the 2% spending goal but have laid out plans for substantial increases in spending and announced the intention to acquire capabilities desired by NATO.
The Spanish plan to boost defense spending by 80%, or about $22 billion, moving from 0.9% to 1.6% of GDP over the next seven years.
Other countries haven’t submitted detailed plans and their spending remains low despite relative wealth. Multiple officials pointed to Belgium as an ally not pulling its weight. The U.S. has been pushing Belgium to boost defense spending by purchasing F-35 jet fighters.
Laurence Mortier, the spokeswoman for the Belgian defense ministry, said it plans to increase spending from 0.9% of GDP today to 1.3% by 2030, including new jet fighters.
“It is a political decision what is spent on defense,” she said. “We had an agreement on 1.3%. If Mattis tells us we have to do more, it will have to be a political discussion if we are going to do more and how.”
Germany has drawn particular ire from Mr. Trump, who has accused Europe’s biggest economy of not paying its bills to NATO. German officials bristle at the charge.
Protracted government coalition talks, now concluding, have led to an agreement to raise spending, but not necessarily to the level demanded by Washington.
Since 2015, the country has expanded its military outlays, lifting overall European defense spending and helping reverse its downward trend. Germany is one of the largest contributors to NATO missions.
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It remains unclear whether Germany will agree to lift defense spending to 2% of GDP. Economic growth there has meant big increases in defense spending haven’t translated to a larger proportion of GDP.
Overall defense spending by European NATO nations hit a nadir in 2014, the year Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine.
Diplomats from member countries said according to preliminary estimates, NATO spending this year should show the largest increase since the Cold War. The diplomats said non-U.S. allies have increased spending to about $299 billion last year, up $46 billion from their 2014 outlays.
European military spending is dwarfed by U.S. spending. Under the budget agreement signed Friday, the Pentagon’s budget will rise to $716 billion next year.
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