Russia projects power into Gulf and east Mediterranean at expense of US and allies
Firas Abi Ali - IHS Jane's Intelligence Weekly
22 August 2016
Key Points
Russia will seek to manage the proxy conflicts between Iran and Turkey in northern Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and northern Syria, replacing the traditional role of the United States.
Russia will negotiate support for Syrian Kurds in exchange for Turkish acquiescence for the survival of the structures of the Syrian government at least along the Eastern Mediterranean coast.
Iran will benefit from Russian engagement to complicate US and Israeli military options in the event that the nuclear agreement breaks down; in exchange, Russia will gain the ability to project power into the Gulf.EVENT
By playing off Turkey against Iran, Russia is expanding its geopolitical reach as the United States reduces its footprint in the region, securing its interests along the Syrian coast, shifting the geographic focus of Iranian and Turkish proxy conflicts, and increasing the cost of future US-Iran confrontations.
Russian Tu-22M 'Backfire' strategic bombers, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, along with Su-34 'Fullback' jets, conducted airstrikes against Syria launched from Hamedan Air Base in Iran on 17 and 18 August. Iran has emphasised that the basing rights are temporary, as the constitution bans permanent foreign bases in the country. However, the precedent has been set and Russia can probably use these bases in the future, as long as Iran needs Russian support against the United States.
Russia has also begun to send the parts of the S-300 air defence system it had sold to Iran, with the system likely to become operational by early 2017. This makes it far harder for the US and/or Israel to consider a military option against Iran in the event that the nuclear agreement breaks down.
Russian-Turkish co-operation
Having secured its relationship with Iran, Russia is now mending fences with Turkey. Russia extracted an 'expression of regret' over the November 2015 downing of a Russian jet from Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan even before the attempted coup of 15 July.
http://www.janes.com/article/63110/russia-projects-power-into-gulf-and-east-mediterranean-at-expense-of-us-and-allies