[Marauder]

An arms race is taking place in Southeast Asia

By Hideaki Kaneda
Commentary by
Monday, June 12, 2006
 
 
Southeast Asia's return to prosperity since the financial crisis of 1997 has brought a region-wide splurge on new weapons. Most Southeast Asian countries are, indeed, now busily modernizing their armed forces. So far, most have done so without compromising their autonomy in security matters. But with China's military build-up causing nervousness everywhere, many governments in the region are starting to work with outside powers.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has perhaps been the most assertive. In addition to becoming more active in world diplomacy, Yudhoyono will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow this month to discuss buying Russia's newest fighter jets. Indonesia is seeking to form an air-defense squadron of 12 jets, with eight Russian fighters to complement the two Russian Su-27SKs and Su-30MKMs that it has already bought.

Elsewhere in the region, Singapore has apparently opted to purchase 12 new F-15SG fighter aircraft from the United States. Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra met Putin late last year and tentatively agreed to purchase 12 Su-30MKMs. Malaysia has agreed to buy 18 Su-30MKMs over the next two years, while Vietnam has purchased 36 SU-27SKs, 12 of which are already in service.  

With the exception of Singapore, it seems that Russian fighter-attack aircraft are the region's weapon of choice at the moment. Russia's growing slice of the local arms market worries the US, the world's biggest weapons supplier and still Asia's greatest military power. Thus, for example, last November, the US lifted its six-year embargo on military sales to Indonesia, imposed in 1999 in response to human rights abuses in East Timor. Indonesia immediately expressed its intention to purchase C-130 transport aircraft, as well as fast patrol boats to conduct "anti-terrorism and anti-piracy measures."

Yet Indonesia is also trying to align itself with Asia's rising power, China, by seeking greater defense and security cooperation. As a result of these improved relations, Indonesia has received Chinese short-range missile technology.

The possibility that Southeast Asia's governments might begin to play America and China off against each other is one of the concerns that most animates the latest US quadrennial defense review, which is intended to "focus on the Pacific Ocean" in awareness of China's growing naval power. Undoubtedly, the US will try to build closer ties with Indonesia through greater military cooperation, because Indonesia borders the region's key maritime lines of communication.

In particular, Indonesia will inevitably become involved in the tug of war between the US and China for influence over the vitally important Malacca Strait. Because China must import vast quantities of oil through the strait, the sea lane has become a central element in the country's security strategy. For this reason, China is attempting to use economic and military aid as leverage to improve relations even with countries with which it has had military confrontations in the past, most prominently Vietnam and the Philippines.
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India, too, is now joining the military build-up. It has actively led regional multilateral joint exercises, such as the joint naval exercise it hosted in the Andaman Sea, in the eastern Indian Ocean, earlier this year. Nine Asian Pacific countries took part, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.

Both India and China are each seeking greater influence over the strategically important country of Myanmar. For example, after Myanmar signed an agreement with China in 2005 to supply natural gas, India responded by cutting its own gas deal with Myanmar.

South Korea, too, has joined the scramble. President Roh Moo-hyun visited Malaysia and agreed to expand mutual economic cooperation mainly in information technology, biotechnology, and resources and energy. Roh reportedly also discussed exporting defense materials worth $2.3 billion, including training aircraft, destroyers, and armed vehicles. Moreover, in January 2006 Korean Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung agreed with the Philippines to deliver two used patrol boats.

In this crowded power play, only Japan is left out, choosing for the most part to remain aloof and cultivate its relations with the US. But despite deep historical animosity over World War II, there are increasing calls in the region for Japan to expand its influence to counterbalance China. In reality, Japan is not ready for this, because it still strongly adheres to a policy of "self-imposed restraints" against "influence over other countries in security and defense," including weapons exports.  

In the 1960s, as its economic takeoff was proceeding, Japan initiated a serious dialogue with regional players, aiming to build stronger relations with countries that it had once conquered and occupied. It is no overstatement to say that those efforts, which boosted trade and investment in the region, formed the foundation of Japan's national power today. But now Japan's political and economic influence in Southeast Asia is gradually declining, owing in part to its failure to exert influence over security and defense matters.

For those Asian countries that recall Japan's moderate and sensible advancement of regional policies since the 1960s, there is a growing expectation that Japan should re-think its stance. At a time of regional uncertainty about Chinese policies - including the looming prospect of China's first aircraft carrier - Japan's participation in the evolving Asian security framework is fundamental to stability. The time when Japan could remain on the sidelines is over.


Hideaki Kaneda, a retired vice admiral of Japan's Self Defense Forces, is director of the Okazaki Institute in Tokyo. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate (www.project-syndicate.org).

Fonte Daily Star Regional...www.dailystar.com.lb

[TOMKAT]

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hticbm/articles/20060626.aspx

Taiwan's Nuclear Missiles

June 26, 2006: For over three years, there have been rumors that Taiwan is developing ballistic missiles, and nuclear weapons. Called the Tiching Project, it  is said to be using technology used for  an earlier ballistic missile program. In the 1990s, technical problems and expense convinced Taiwan to halt their Sky Horse ballistic missile program. The reasoning was that, in addition to the expense, such a program would only anger the Chinese, and that, in any event, the United States would provide Taiwan with protection from an invasion. The official cancellation of the program in 2000 was apparently not final. The Tiching Project is believed to be developing two missiles. One is a two stage, solid fuel missile, with a thousand kilometer range, carrying a 700 pound warhead. The other missile would just use the first stage, have a range of about 300 kilometers and the same size warhead. The short range version of the missile is believed to have been tested already.

The nuclear weapons program has long been rumored. As long ago as the 1970s, the CIA declared that Taiwan could build nuclear weapons within five years. Since then, the time required has shrunk. Actually, the high quality of Taiwan's industrial and scientific capabilities indicates that nuclear weapons may already exist, but remain untested.

Naturally, Taiwan has good reason to keep all this sort of stuff secret. If they openly admitted to owning ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, China might, because of constant threats to "return Taiwan to Chinese control", feel compelled to do something drastic, and immediately. But ultimately, Taiwanese nuclear weapons, delivered by ballistic missiles, could provide the cheapest and most effective defense against Chinese invasion.

[Marauder]

O rearmamento de Singapura..

 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006- ... 781217.htm

 Dá inveja..


PS:

Singapore To Improve Defenses Against Ballistic Missiles: Defense Chief


By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, SINGAPORE
 
Singapore will improve its air defense systems as it lies within the range of ballistic missiles possessed by an increasing number of countries, its defense minister said in remarks published July 1.
 
"We are inside the range rings of more and more countries that have missiles of various kinds, so we have to take that into account when we design our future air defense systems — our radars, our missiles, our air defense fighters," Teo Chee Hean said in an interview with the Straits Times.
 
"We don't expect that they will be a direct threat to us. But the fact of the matter is that we are now within their range rings when, prior to that, we were not," he said without naming any countries.
 
"So this is something which, if we're prudent, we will take into account."
 
Singapore, a tiny but affluent island-nation, has one of Asia's most modern military arsenals and spends around six percent of gross domestic product annually on defense.
 
Last December, Singapore signed a contract to buy U.S.-made Boeing F-15 fighter jets, in a further upgrade for its inventory which also includes Apache attack helicopters, stealth frigates and submarines.
 
Teo said Singapore was on track to transform its military into a "third generation" armed force that will make more use of technology in the battlefield. Units will also be smaller and more autonomous under the set-up.
 
"Over the next five to seven years, I think you'll see the major impact of this transformation coming... but this is an ongoing process and I would expect that it's something that will take us much of a decade to do so," he said.
 
The armed forces must adapt to changes in the nature of warfare and the emergence of new threats such as terrorism, the defense chief added.
 
Singapore has a battalion specializing in the protection of key installations, and another which focuses on developing doctrine and equipment required for urban warfare.
 
"At a higher level, what we see as changes to the security landscape are things like the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the proliferation of missiles with longer ranges — ballistic missiles, cruise missiles," Teo said.

defense-aerospace.com

[Bravo Two Zero]

EUA negoceiam venda de 80 Patriot PAC-3 com o Japão:

The United States is offering Tokyo up to 80 Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles for an estimated $99.7 million in Japan’s 2007 budget.
The offer came shortly after the North Korean missile tests July 5. In late July, Japan Defense Agency (JDA) Director Gen. Fukushiro Nukaga sent a letter to U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld requesting additional PAC-3s beyond those already on order, the Japan Times reported.
“This is a significant move that exercises the U.S.-Japan alliance at multiple levels,” said Lance Gatling, a consultant with Gatling Associates, Tokyo. “Lots of folks in Tokyo and D.C. are burning the midnight oil to get this done quickly. Strategically, both countries are responding quickly and flexibly in a way that shows the growing closeness and strength of the alliance, clearly driven now by missile defense against a possible North Korean threat.”
Japan ordered 16 PAC-3 missiles in 2005 and plans to deploy the first battery at 1st Air Defense Missile Group at Iruma Air Base, Saitama Prefecture, by March 2007, and then later batteries at Kasuga Base in Fukuoka, Gifu Base and Hamamatsu Base, Shizuoka Prefecture, by 2010.
Japan currently has 24 PAC-2 batteries with up to 1,000 missiles divided into six missile groups. The PAC-2s were ordered from the United States in 1984 in a co-production license agreement with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to replace the aging Nike Hercules surface-to-air missiles. Japan’s PAC-1 systems were upgraded to PAC-2 standards.
“Judging from the fact that North Korea has acquired the multiple missile-firing capabilities, Japan is likely to procure many more PAC-3 and SM-3 missiles than expected,” said retired Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Rear Adm. Sumihiko Kawamura. “Japan has been striving to build a multitier missile defense system consisting of the land-based PAC-3 missiles as well as the seaborne SM-3 missiles on board Aegis destroyers.”
Kawamura is founder of The Kawamura Institute, a think tank in Tokyo.
“We should have taken drastic measures for national defense when the Taepodong-1 missile was launched over Japan in 1998,” said Naoki Akiyama, director of the Tokyo-based Congressional National Security Research Group. “Now Japan has realized the threat from North Korea from the recent missile test in July.”
Gatling said the “biggest hurdles” to the PAC-3 request “may be administrative; Japan’s procurement and fiscal policies and procedures are inflexible, and matching that to a U.S. FMS [Foreign Military Sale] system not noted for its efficiency or speed isn’t easy in normal times.”
The U.S. Army made some batch purchases of PAC-3s over the last couple of years, including 156 last year. Of those, 16 are for Japan under earlier FMS agreements.
“Japan planned to buy only these 16, but after the last North Korean incident asked for additional missiles. These missiles are to be delivered by the end of March 2007,” said a Japanese defense source.
“Someone in the U.S. Army decided that those missiles, ordered by the Army a year or two ago, would be more useful fielded in Japan’s experienced Patriot batteries rather than stored at some Army Patriot unit in Kansas,” Gatling said. “This is a good move on all sides.”
U.S. Army officials could not be reached by press time.
Japan already plans to domestically co-produce PAC-3 missiles under license with Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, but sources warn it will take time for Mitsubishi to study the drawing packages from Lockheed, qualify vendors and start up manufacturing.
“The build cycle time is too long for Japan to produce significant numbers, and the U.S. Army Patriot battery deploying to Okinawa won’t be operational for some time to come,” said the Japanese defense source.
The North Korean missile tests July 5 shook Japanese society, but reported signs of possible nuclear tests are more worrisome for the Japanese.
“A test will confirm what has been assumed [North Korean possession of nuclear bombs], and political pressure on the Japanese government to do more than participating in the six-party talks will rise,” said Yoichiro Sato, a professor at the Honolulu-based Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.
North Korea’s bellicose behavior will encourage Japan to rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, step up discussions on some pre-emptive capabilities against North Korean missiles and accelerate deployment of missile defense arsenals, Sato said. •

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=2059367&C=airwar