Irão

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« Responder #15 em: Dezembro 09, 2005, 08:39:34 am »
as Harleys são demasiado pesadas e pouco manobraveis para essas missões.
 

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Cabeça de Martelo

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Irão
« Responder #16 em: Janeiro 27, 2006, 11:15:10 am »
7. Todos os animais são iguais mas alguns são mais iguais que os outros.

 

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Pantera

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Re: Irão/USA
« Responder #17 em: Janeiro 27, 2006, 04:16:51 pm »
Citação de: "Cabeça de Martelo"
http://www.oprimeirodejaneiro.pt/?op=artigo&sec=8f14e45fceea167a5a36dedd4bea2543&subsec=&id=5dfc468cf2927f63a51caa32a62be754


grande Sra. Rice.Penso que já está mesmo na altura de passar das palavras aos actos.Os esforças diplomaticos têm-se mostrado vãos.O Irão quer construir armas nucleares parece-me demasiado óbvio,e quem sofre com isso será o mundo em geral,e agora com a subida do Hamas ao poder,será dois em um,um barril de polvora pronta a explodir......

A questão central será o que acontecerá se os Americanos bombardearem a central nuclear?Haverá reacção militar por parte do Irão?

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Cabeça de Martelo

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Irão
« Responder #18 em: Janeiro 27, 2006, 05:08:47 pm »
Como é que o Irão retaliaria? Eles ainda não têm a bomba, só se recorressem ao terrorismo.
7. Todos os animais são iguais mas alguns são mais iguais que os outros.

 

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Pantera

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Re: Irão
« Responder #19 em: Fevereiro 06, 2006, 11:56:42 am »
Citação de: "Cabeça de Martelo"
Como é que o Irão retaliaria? Eles ainda não têm a bomba, só se recorressem ao terrorismo.


Podem atacar as bases americanas no golfo persico,como no Iraque, arábia saudita, Kuwait e Qatar.

A força aerea iraniana podia atacar esses alvos terrestres,seria uma luta feroz pelos vistos.Os EUA teria de lá meter mais aviões de combate para retaliar qualquer ataque áereo por parte do Irão.Além disso o Irão tem muitos misseis balisticos que podiam atingir essas mesmas bases,além de misseis terra-ar que seria uma dor de cabeça para os aviões americanos.

A juntar a isto,muitos terroristas islamicos,poderiam criar uma guerra de verdadeiro terror com muitos ataques suicidas principalmente no Iraque.

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Paisano

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« Responder #20 em: Fevereiro 23, 2006, 11:58:01 pm »
Irã quer ajuda do Brasil na crise nuclear

Fonte: www.oglobo.com.br

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Em visita ao Brasil, Gholam Ali Haddad Ade, o terceiro homem na hierarquia do poder no Irã, disse ao GLOBO que gostaria de ter a ajuda diplomática de Brasília na Agência Internacional de Energia Atômica (AIEA) para a resolução da crise nuclear. Para o presidente do Parlamento iraniano, a agência tem que responder por que o Brasil pode enriquecer urânio e o Irã não. Ele disse ainda que não há meios de reaproximação entre Teerã e Washington e que o projeto dos EUA de levar a democracia à região é inútil. Gholam Ali não acredita que o mundo viva um choque de civilizações, mas aconselha todos os que querem a paz, islâmicos ou não, a pressionar a Dinamarca por causa das charges de Maomé, para que agressões ao Islã não se repitam.

O Brasil também foi alvo da desconfiança internacional por causa de seu programa nuclear. No entanto, conseguiu a aprovação da AIEA para o enriquecimento de urânio. O Irã se ressente da posição da comunidade internacional de que o Brasil pode e o Irã não?

GHOLAM ALI: Não temos nada contra o programa nuclear brasileiro. Acreditamos que todos os Estados têm o direito, como estabelece a AIEA, de desenvolver programas nucleares para fins pacíficos. Todos os países, na nossa opinião, devem aproveitar as oportunidades que a tecnologia nuclear oferece para a produção de energia e outros fins pacíficos. Trata-se de um desenvolvimento necessário. Agora, a agência tem que responder porque aceita o programa do Brasil e não o do Irã.

A experiência que o Brasil obteve no relacionamento com a AIEA poderia ser útil ao Irã?

GHOLAM ALI: Gostaríamos de ter a ajuda diplomática do Brasil para a resolução do impasse com a agência internacional. Não temos interesse em intercâmbio com os brasileiros na área nuclear, mas a ajuda nas negociações é bem-vinda. Isso porque hoje o problema é com o Irã, mas amanhã pode ser com qualquer outro país, inclusive o Brasil. Portanto, a ajuda de países que já têm programas nucleares ativos seria muito útil. Juntos, com os meios jurídicos internacionais disponíveis, os Estados que já desenvolvem a energia nuclear podem dar um fim positivo a esse impasse, contribuindo para a paz mundial.

Os países que insistem que novos programas nucleares sejam exclusivamente para fins pacíficos são exatamente os que possuem quase a totalidade das bombas atômicas hoje existentes. Na sua opinião, todos os países têm direito de desenvolver armas atômicas ou essa é uma prerrogativa exclusiva das grandes potências?

GHOLAM ALI: Independentemente do que é de direito ou não neste caso, o que temos a dizer é que o Irã não tem e nunca teve o projeto de desenvolver armas nucleares. Mesmo que esse seja um direito nosso, não há vontade de se produzir esse tipo de armamento. E isso já foi manifestado diversas vezes, em diferentes ocasiões. Está claro.

A secretária de Estado americana, Condoleezza Rice, declarou esta semana que pediu ao Congresso dos EUA US$ 75 milhões para promover a democracia no Irã. O que o senhor tem a dizer sobre isso?

GHOLAM ALI: Isto não é necessário, é inútil. Vivemos neste momento numa democracia. O objetivo dos EUA quando falam em democracia não é promover valores democráticos e sim seus interesses e os de seus aliados. Eles só aceitam democracias que estejam de acordo com seus interesses. Se é esse o tipo de democracia que os EUA querem para o Irã, não vão conseguir. O povo iraniano já sofreu com muitas opressões dos EUA.

O Irã reagiu com rigor às publicações das charges do profeta Maomé. Esse incidente mostra que o Ocidente e os países islâmicos estão em colisão?

GHOLAM ALI: Não concordamos com as idéias de Samuel Huntington, autor de “O choque de civilizações”. Ao contrário do que ele prega, acreditamos num caminho de diálogo entre as civilizações. Mas todas as pessoas que querem paz no mundo, islâmicas ou não, têm que pressionar o governo dinamarquês e os de outros países que publicaram as charges. Se queremos evitar que o contato entre as civilizações seja um choque terrível, o mundo cristão deve apresentar sua solidariedade ao mundo islâmico nesta questão.

Depois de Israel informar que não vai transferir o dinheiro de impostos para o Hamas, o Irã anunciou que vai ajudar os palestinos. Essa parceria vai se estreitar ainda mais?

GHOLAM ALI: O Irã vai ajudar o Hamas no que for preciso, o povo muçulmano e as nações islâmicas também vão ajudar.
As pessoas te pesam? Não as carregue nos ombros. Leva-as no coração. (Dom Hélder Câmara)
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Luso

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« Responder #21 em: Fevereiro 27, 2006, 04:01:13 pm »
http://saberaverdade.blogspot.com/

"Em Março 3 acontecimentos mudarão a Historia do Mundo

No proximo mes de Março, 3 acontecimentos vao marcar para sempre a historia do mundo em que vivemos. 3 acontecimentos menores se os vissemos dissociados uns dos outros mas quando olhamos os tres em conjunto um padrao emerge e arrebata-nos de forma monstruosa. No passado mês de Dezembro, o Fed anunciou que ia deixar de produzir e publicar o chamado indice M3, que é publicado desde que o dolar é dolar. O que é o indice M3? Este indice mede a quantidade total de divisas norte americanas em circulação no planeta. O indice M0 indica o total de moeda fisica nos bancos, notas e moedas, o M1 é o M0 mais as contas à ordem, o M2 é o M1 mais os papeis comerciais e contas a prazo, e finalmente o M3 é o M2 mais as grandes contas em dolares, reservas de países terceiros em dolares e todas as grandes contas em dolares existentes. No fundo o indice M3 é a quantidade de moeda norte americana em circulação. O Fed defende a decisao de deixar de publicar este indice com a bacoca ideia de que nao acrescenta nada de essencial ao investidor e por isso sempre se poupam 500.000 dolares anuais ao deixar de alocar recursos para o seu calculo. Isto é mentira em todas as frentes, pois o indice vai deixar de ser publicado mas vai continuar a ser calculado para estatistica interna, e segundo o indice acrescenta uma valiosa informaçao em relação ao seu antecessor o M2. É com o indice M3 que o publico percebe se as reservas em dolares dos países estrangeiros estao a aumentar ou a diminuir. É uma informaçao vital para os mercados cambiais, por exemplo. O mais relevante é a data a partir da qual este indice vai passar a ser escondido do publico, 23 de Março. Já veremos como esta data cai como uma bomba, literalmente, nas terras do Irão. Outro acontecimento para Março é a tao falada nova bolsa de petroleo de Teerão, que se sabe estar por detrás do futuro ataque ao Irão. Esta bolsa vai mudar drasticamente a geopolitica mundial. Até agora o mercado de petroleo estava cingido apenas ao NYMEX em Nova Yorque, e à bolsa de Londres. E as suas transacções estavam exclusivamente denominadas em dolares. Isto provoca uma procura mundial pelo dolar para poder transacionar no mercado energetico o que por sua vez faz aumentar o preço do dolar. A bolsa de Teerão vai ser baseada em Euros pelo que o Irão vai, não só vender o seu petroleo em Euros, e não é assim tao pouco como isso pois representa 5% da produção diaria mundial, mas vai tambem arrastar outros países que não querem estar tao sujeitos à instabilidade que o dolar tem vivido ultimamente. A Venezuela já concordou passar a negociar exclusivamente através do Irão e muitos outros países se seguem. Obviamente para a Europa tambem faz mais sentido negociar na sua propria moeda do que incorrer em operações cambiais cada vez que compra petroleo como tem acontecido. Isto vai provocar uma mudança geopolitica brutal. À medida que mais países compram em euros, menos o dolar é procurado, levando à sua queda até à fossa, o que já não anda longe. A acrescentar à descida rapida do dolar estará tambem a falta de interesse em manter grandes reservas de dolares pois estes já não são fundamentais para transacionar petroleo. Deixa de ser interessante financeiramente comprar titulos de divida publica americana (bonds) e possivelmente haverá tentativas de liquidação de titulos de divida americanos por parte de alguns países com reservas de dolares excessivas, para as redireccionar para euros. Isto já se verifica um pouco e é a causa do começo da subida das taxas de juro, o que depois será ainda mais rapida. Esta situação a manter-se inalterada significava o colapso breve prazo da moeda americana e consequentemente da propria economia. Quando é que a bolsa de Teerão vai abrir? A 23 de Março. Portanto temos a espantosa coincidencia de no dia em que o principio do fim do dolar acontece, acontece tambem que o indicador que nos diz se as reservas mundiais de dolares se estao a deslocar e a fugir do mesmo é deixado de ser publicado. Os americanos nem vao saber de que morte morrem. O terceiro acontecimento é tambem o mais relevante. No fundo são dois acontecimentos no mesmo dia. A dia 28 de Março haverá eleiçoes em Israel e será feito (que fique aqui escrito) o primeiro ataque em solo iraniano contra alvos nucleares, que já é aqui vaticinado para Março desde Setembro ultimo. El-Baradei apresentará o seu relatorio sobre o Irão no principio de Março embora o premio nobel já tenha dito que o mundo está a perder a paciencia com o Irão. Este relatório vai servir de desculpa para os ataques subsequentes. O Times afirmava em Dezembro ultimo que Sharon colocara o nivel de prontidao das suas tropas no máximo para um ataque ao Irao no final de Março (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 74,00.html). Vladimir Girinovsky afirmou esta semana saber com toda a certeza que o ataque se dará a 28 de Março. Afirmou tambem que Condoleeza Rice não era casada por gostar mais de estar perto de militares suados. Rice foi a protagonista da alteração à lei que proibia os EUA de usarem armas nucleares antes do inimigo. Desde Dezembro ultimo que é possivel aos EUA usarem armas nucleares preventivamente, numa resolução passada no senado sem qualquer discussao ou cobertura mediatica. Temos entao 2 cenarios possiveis. Ou os EUA atacam o Irão e impedem a abertura da bolsa de petroleo, ou a economia colapsará. Eu acredito nas duas simultaneamente, pois a divida publica norte-americana é de tal modo grande que nunca conseguirá recuperar. Este ultimo debate do Estado da Uniao nos EUA aumentou em 10% a despesa militar e reduziu em todas as despesas com saude e educação. Nunca um orçamemento foi tao gastador como este. À China não interessa muito o valor do dolar pois a divida dos EUA para com eles é tao grande que podem comprar a America inteira com os seus bonds. De qualquer modo a China cedeu aos EUA quando quiseram desvalorizar o yuan ao ritmo do dolar, o que traria o colapso americano tambem. O yuan foi valorizado artificialmente em 10% para deixar o dolar respirar um pouco. Março será entao o principio do fim do fim do principio."


A ver vamos...
Ai de ti Lusitânia, que dominarás em todas as nações...
 

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NVF

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« Responder #22 em: Fevereiro 28, 2006, 12:40:15 am »
Recordo-me que, antes da invasao ao Iraque, alguns comentadores referiram que umas das causas por detras da invasao era o Saddam querer passar a transacionar o petroleo do Iraque em euros. Coincidencia? Parece-me demasiado conspirativo, mas um gajo quando chega a certa idade ja' acredita em tudo. Vamos aguardar.
Talent de ne rien faire
 

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Marauder

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« Responder #23 em: Março 01, 2006, 01:01:17 pm »
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Khatami critica Ahmadinejad sobre Holocausto

O antigo Presidente reformador do Irão Mohammad Khatami criticou a negação pelo seu sucessor Mahmud Ahmadinejad do Holocausto, que considerou uma «realidade histórica», noticiou hoje a imprensa iraniana.


«Devemos protestar mesmo se um só judeu foi morto. Não esqueçamos que um dos crimes de Hitler, do nazismo e do nacional-socialismo na Alemanha foi o massacre de inocentes entre os quais vários judeus», declarou o antigo Presidente reformador, citado hoje pela imprensa.

Khatami acrescentou que o holocausto deve ser reconhecido «mesmo que se tenha abusado desta realidade história e que haja enormes pressões sobre o povo palestiniano».

O Presidente ultraconservador Mahmud Ahmadinejad repetiu em várias ocasiões nos últimos meses que o Holocausto era um «mito» criado pelos Ocidentais para justificar a criação do Estado de Israel.

Acrescentou também que Israel devia ser «riscado do mapa» ou colocado na Europa, na América do Norte ou até mesmo no Alasca.

Estas declarações foram repudiadas pelo Ocidente e condenadas pelo Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas.

Mohammad Khatami, presidente entre 1997 e 2005, conduziu uma política de abertura em relação ao Ocidente e lançou a ideia do «diálogo de civilizações».

No final de Janeiro, o diário conservador Hamshahri lançou um concurso internacional de caricaturas sobre o Holocausto em resposta às caricaturas do profeta Maomé publicadas pela imprensa europeia.

O Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros iraniano decidiu também organizar uma conferência sobre o Holocausto, ideia que o primeiro-ministro britânico, Tony Blair, considerou «chocante, ridícula e estúpida».

As declarações de Khatami surgem numa altura em que vários reformadores iranianos começaram a criticar a posição do Presidente Ahmadinejad e os perigos que representa para o Irão.

«Recentemente a questão do Holocausto tornou-se, por vontade do Presidente (Ahmadinejad), o tema da política externa do país. A questão judaica nunca foi problema do Irão ou do Islão. É um problema cristão e europeu», afirma em editorial o diário moderado Shargh.

Diário Digital / Lusa


de:
http://diariodigital.sapo.pt/news.asp?s ... ews=217162

   É que o Irão não é uma ditadura..e o presidente ainda terá de responder pelas suas acções ao povo.
   Curioso é saber as razões que os EUA vão argumentar quando (se) decidirem atacar o Irão...

   Realmente Luso...esse blog tem umas informações explosivas....vamos ver se o gato vai atrás do rato...porque este quer abrir uma bolsa de valores de petróleo cotado em Euros...
 

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JoseMFernandes

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« Responder #24 em: Março 01, 2006, 04:13:46 pm »
Caro LUSO:


"http://saberaverdade.blogspot.com/

"Em Março 3 acontecimentos mudarão a Historia do Mundo ... "

Apreciei bastante o blog que indicou.O texto acima, embora o autor portugues nao o tenha referido, talvez provenha essencialmente da  'newsletter' de um 'think-tank' (desconheço algum termo equivalente em portugues, tanque ou pote de ideias nao soam muito bem  :?
As notas finais tem alguns links, inclusive a Reserva Federal Americana.


 
Citar
EUROPE 2020 ALARM / Global Systemic Rupture
March 20-26, 2006:
Iran/USA - Release of global world crisis
The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.

An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events
The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

--> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

--> on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward [1].

These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system.


A world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises
LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably too:

1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis


The entire process of anticipation of this crisis will be described in detail in the coming issues of LEAP/E2020’s confidential letter – the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, and in particular in the 2nd issue to be released on February 16, 2006. These coming issues will present the detailed analysis of each of the 7 crises, together with a large set of recommendations intended for various categories of players (governments and companies, namely), as well as with a number of operational and strategic advices for the European Union.


Decoding of the event “Creation of the Iranian Oil Bourse priced in Euros”
However, and in order not to limit this information to decision makers solely, LEAP/E2020 has decided to circulate widely this official statement together with the following series of arguments resulting from work conducted.
Iran's opening of an Oil Bourse priced in Euros at the end of March 2006 will be the end of the monopoly of the Dollar on the global oil market. The immediate result is likely to upset the international currency market as producing countries will be able to charge their production in Euros also. In parallel, European countries in particular will be able to buy oil directly in their own currency without going though the Dollar. Concretely speaking, in both cases this means that a lesser number of economic actors will need a lesser number of Dollars [2]. This double development will thus head to the same direction, i.e. a very significant reduction of the importance of the Dollar as the international reserve currency, and therefore a significant and sustainable weakening of the American currency, in particular compared to the Euro. The most conservative evaluations give €1 to $1,30 US Dollar by the end of 2006. But if the crisis reaches the scope anticipated by LEAP/E2020, estimates of €1 for $1,70 in 2007 are no longer unrealistic.


Decoding of the event “End of publication of the M3 macro-economic indicator”
The end of the publication by the American Federal Reserve of the M3 monetary aggregate (and that of other components) [3] , a decision vehemently criticized by the community of economists and financial analysts, will have as a consequence to lose transparency on the evolution of the amount of Dollars in circulation worldwide. For some months already, M3 has significantly increased (indicating that « money printing » has already speeded up in Washington), knowing that the new President of the US Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, is a self-acknowledged fan of « money printing » [4]. Considering that a strong fall of the Dollar would probably result in a massive sale of the US Treasury Bonds held in Asia, in Europe and in the oil-producing countries, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the American decision to stop publishing M3 aims at hiding as long as possible two US decisions, partly imposed by the political and economic choices made these last years [5]:

. the ‘monetarisation’ of the US debt
. the launch of a monetary policy to support US economic activity.
… two policies to be implemented until at least the October 2006 « mid-term » elections, in order to prevent the Republican Party from being sent in reeling.
This M3-related decision also illustrates the incapacity of the US and international monetary and financial authorities put in a situation where they will in the end prefer to remove the indicator rather than try to act on the reality.


Decoding of the aggravating factor “The military intervention against Iran”
Iran holds some significant geo-strategic assets in the current crisis, such as its ability to intervene easily and with a major impact on the oil provisioning of Asia and Europe (by blocking the Strait of Ormuz), on the conflicts in progress in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention the possible recourse to international terrorism. But besides these aspects, the growing distrust towards Washington creates a particularly problematic situation. Far from calming both Asian and European fears concerning the accession of Iran to the statute of nuclear power, a military intervention against Iran would result in an quasi-immediate dissociation of the European public opinions [6] which, in a context where Washington has lost its credibility in handling properly this type of case since the invasion of Iraq, will prevent the European governments from making any thing else than follow their public opinions. In parallel, the rising cost of oil which would follow such an intervention will lead Asian countries, China first and foremost, to oppose this option, thus forcing the United States (or Israel) to intervene on their own, without UN guarantee, therefore adding a severe military and diplomatic crisis to the economic and financial crisis.


Relevant factors of the American economic crisis
LEAP/E2020 anticipate that these two non-official decisions will involve the United States and the world in a monetary, financial, and soon economic crisis without precedent on a planetary scale. The ‘monetarisation’ of the US debt is indeed a very technical term describing a catastrophically simple reality: the United States undertake not to refund their debt, or more exactly to refund it in "monkey currency". LEAP/E2020 also anticipate that the process will accelerate at the end of March, in coincidence with the launching of the Iranian Oil Bourse, which can only precipitate the sales of US Treasury Bonds by their non-American holders.

 

In this perspective, it is useful to contemplate the following information 7: the share of the debt of the US government owned by US banks fell down to 1,7% in 2004, as opposed to 18% in 1982. In parallel, the share of this same debt owned by foreign operators went from 17% in 1982 up to 49% in 2004.
--> Question: How comes that US banks got rid of almost all their share of the US national debt over the last years?

 


Moreover, in order to try to avoid the explosion of the "real-estate bubble" on which rests the US household consumption, and at a time when the US saving rate has become negative for the first time since 1932 and 1933 (in the middle of the "Great Depression"), the Bush administration, in partnership with the new owner of the US Federal Reserve and a follower of this monetary approach, will flood the US market of liquidities.


Some anticipated effects of this systemic rupture
According to LEAP/E2020, the non-accidental conjunction of the Iranian and American decisions, is a decisive stage in the release of a systemic crisis marking the end of the international order set up after World War II, and will be characterised between the end of March and the end of the year 2006 by a plunge in the dollar (possibly down to 1 Euro = 1,70 US Dollars in 2007) putting an immense upward pressure on the Euro, a significant rise of the oil price (over 100$ per barrel), an aggravation of the American and British military situations in the Middle East, a US budgetary, financial and economic crisis comparable in scope with the 1929 crisis, very serious economic and financial consequences for Asia in particular (namely China) but also for the United Kingdom [8], a sudden stop in the economic process of globalisation, a collapse of the transatlantic axis leading to a general increase of all the domestic and external political dangers all over the world.

For individual dollar-holders, as for trans-national corporations or political and administrative decision makers, the consequences of this last week of March 2006 will be crucial. These consequences require some difficult decisions to be made as soon as possible (crisis anticipation is always a complex process since it relies on a bet) because once the crisis begins, the stampede starts and all those who chose to wait lose.
For private individuals, the choice is clear: the US Dollar no longer is a “refuge” currency. The rising-cost of gold over the last year shows that many people have already anticipated this trend of the US currency.

 


Anticipating… or being swept away by the winds of history
For companies and governments - European ones in particular - LEAP/E2020 has developed in its confidential letter – the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin -, and in particular in the next issue, a series of strategic and operational recommendations which, if integrated in today's decision-making processes, can contribute to soften significantly the "monetary, financial and economic tsunami" which will break on the planet at the end of next month. To use a simple image – by the way, one used in the political anticipation scenario « USA 2010 » [9] -, the impact of the events of the last week of March 2006 on the “Western World” we have known since 1945 will be comparable to the impact of the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 on the “Soviet Block”.

If this Alarm is so precise, it is that LEAP/E2020’s analyses concluded that all possible scenarios now lead to one single result: we collectively approach a "historical node" which is henceforth inevitable whatever the action of international or national actors. At this stage, only a direct and immediate action on the part of the US administration aimed at preventing a military confrontation with Iran on the one hand, and at giving up the idea to monetarise the US foreign debt on the other hand, could change the course of events. For LEAP/E2020 it is obvious that not only such actions will not be initiated by the current leaders in Washington, but that on the contrary they have already chosen "to force the destiny" by shirking their economic and financial problems at the expense of the rest of the world. European governments in particular should draw very quickly all the conclusions from this fact.


For information, LEAP/E2020's original method of political anticipation has allowed several of its experts to anticipate (and publish) in particular : in 1988, the pproaching end of the Iron Curtain; in 1997, the progressive collapse in capacity of action and democratic legitimacy of the European institutional system; in 2002, the US being stuck in Iraq’s quagmire and above all the sustainable collapse of US international credibility; in 2003, the failure of the referenda on the European Constitution. Its methodology of anticipation of "systemic ruptures" now being well established, it is our duty as researchers and citizens to share it with the citizens and the European decision makers; especially because for individual or collective, private or public players, it is still time to undertake measures in order to reduce significantly the impact of this crisis on their positions whether these are economic, political or financial.

LEAP/E2020's complete analysis, as well as its strategic and operational recommendations intended for the private and public actors, will be detailed in the next issues of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, and more particularly in the econd one (issued February 16th, 2006).



1. These decisions were made a few months ago already:
. the information on the creation by the Iranian government of an oil bourse priced in Euros (http://www.mehrnews.com/en/NewsDetail.a ... sID=260851 ) first appeared in Summer 2004 in the specialised press.
. the Federal Reserve announced on November 10, 2005 that it would cease publisging the information concerning M3 from March 23, 2006 onward :
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm

2. By examining Table 13B of the December 2005 Securities Statistics of the Bank for International Settlements entitled International Bonds and Notes (in billions of US dollars), by currency ), one can notice that at the end of 2004 (China not-included), 37.0% of the international financial assets were labelled in USD vs 46,8% in Euros ; while in 2000, the proportion was contrary with 49,6% labelled in USD for 30,1% only in Euros. It indicates that the March 2006 decisions will most probably accelerate the trend of exit-strategy from the dollar.

3. Monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3, M4) are statistical economic indicators. M0 is the value of all currency - here the dollar - that exists in actual bank notes and coins. M1 is M0 + checking accounts of this currency. M2 is M1 + money market accounts and Certificates of Deposits (CD) under $100,000. M3 is M2 + all larger holdings in the dollar (Eurodollar reserves, larger instruments and most non-European nations' reserve holdings) of $100,000 and more. The key point here is that when the Fed stops reporting M3, the entire world will lose transparency on the value of reserve holdings in dollars by other nations and major financial institutions.

4. See his eloquent speech on these aspects before the National Economists Club, Washington DC, November 21, 2002
(http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs ... efault.htm )


5. It should be noticed that the upward trend of the Dollar in 2005 was mostly the result of an interest rate differential which was favourable for the US Dollar, and of the “tax break on foreign earnings” Law (only valid for 1 year) which brought back to the US over $200 billion in the course of 2005.
(source : CNNmoney.com
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/05/news/ec ... as_profits )

6. As regards Europe, LEAP/E2020 wishes to underline that European governments are no longer in line with their opinions concerning the major topics, and in particular concerning the European collective interest. The January 2006 GlobalEurometre clearly highlighted the situation with a Tide-Legitimacy Indicator of 8% (showing that 92% of the panel consider that EU leaders no longer represent their collective interests) and a Tide-Action Indicator of 24% (showing that less than a quarter of the panel thinks EU leaders are capable of translating their own decisions into concrete actions). According to LEAP/E2020, public declarations of support to Washington coming from Paris, Berlin or London, should not hide the fact that the Europeans will quickly dissociate from the US in case of military attack (the GlobalEurometre is a monthly European opinion indicator publishing in the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin 3 figures out of which 2 are public).

7.(source : Bond Market Association, Holders of Treasury Securities: Estimated Ownership of U.S. Public Debt Securities ;
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/28/122315/558 )


8. The United Kingdom indeed owns close to 3,000 billion $ of credits, that is almost three times what countries such as France or Japan hold. (source Bank of International Settlements, Table 9A, Consolidated Claims of Reporting Banks on Individual Countries )

9. Cf. GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin N°1 (January 2006)


 



Versao francesa: www.europe2020.org/fr/section_global/150206.htm
O site AGORAVOX que permite a audiçao de textos, tem também disponivel este artigo em audio, mas apenas em frances.

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« Responder #25 em: Março 02, 2006, 02:02:20 pm »
"Think tank"...
Em certa altura julgava que era uma acumulação de sabedoria tão avassaladora que esmagava tudo à sua passagem! :mrgreen:
Pudera: a primeira vez que observei a expressão foi numa revista da especialidade...

Mas é como diz: tirando a fixação nas datas, a coisa faz sentido. E já agora - a talho de foice - a questão da "manipulação geofísica" através de electromagnetismo (referida noutro postal) já começa a ganhar cada vez mais credibilidade.

Decididamente ele há coisas que desafiam mesmo as nossas mais loucas conjecturas.
Ai de ti Lusitânia, que dominarás em todas as nações...
 

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« Responder #26 em: Março 04, 2006, 12:21:24 am »
Outra!  :shock:  :amazing:

http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

EUROPE 2020 ALARM / Global Systemic Rupture
March 20-26, 2006:
Iran/USA - Release of global world crisis
The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.

An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events
The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

--> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

--> on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward [1].

These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system.


A world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises
LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably too:

1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis


The entire process of anticipation of this crisis will be described in detail in the coming issues of LEAP/E2020’s confidential letter – the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, and in particular in the 2nd issue to be released on February 16, 2006. These coming issues will present the detailed analysis of each of the 7 crises, together with a large set of recommendations intended for various categories of players (governments and companies, namely), as well as with a number of operational and strategic advices for the European Union.


Decoding of the event “Creation of the Iranian Oil Bourse priced in Euros”
However, and in order not to limit this information to decision makers solely, LEAP/E2020 has decided to circulate widely this official statement together with the following series of arguments resulting from work conducted.
Iran's opening of an Oil Bourse priced in Euros at the end of March 2006 will be the end of the monopoly of the Dollar on the global oil market. The immediate result is likely to upset the international currency market as producing countries will be able to charge their production in Euros also. In parallel, European countries in particular will be able to buy oil directly in their own currency without going though the Dollar. Concretely speaking, in both cases this means that a lesser number of economic actors will need a lesser number of Dollars [2]. This double development will thus head to the same direction, i.e. a very significant reduction of the importance of the Dollar as the international reserve currency, and therefore a significant and sustainable weakening of the American currency, in particular compared to the Euro. The most conservative evaluations give €1 to $1,30 US Dollar by the end of 2006. But if the crisis reaches the scope anticipated by LEAP/E2020, estimates of €1 for $1,70 in 2007 are no longer unrealistic.


Decoding of the event “End of publication of the M3 macro-economic indicator”
The end of the publication by the American Federal Reserve of the M3 monetary aggregate (and that of other components) [3] , a decision vehemently criticized by the community of economists and financial analysts, will have as a consequence to lose transparency on the evolution of the amount of Dollars in circulation worldwide. For some months already, M3 has significantly increased (indicating that « money printing » has already speeded up in Washington), knowing that the new President of the US Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, is a self-acknowledged fan of « money printing » [4]. Considering that a strong fall of the Dollar would probably result in a massive sale of the US Treasury Bonds held in Asia, in Europe and in the oil-producing countries, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the American decision to stop publishing M3 aims at hiding as long as possible two US decisions, partly imposed by the political and economic choices made these last years [5]:

. the ‘monetarisation’ of the US debt
. the launch of a monetary policy to support US economic activity.
… two policies to be implemented until at least the October 2006 « mid-term » elections, in order to prevent the Republican Party from being sent in reeling.
This M3-related decision also illustrates the incapacity of the US and international monetary and financial authorities put in a situation where they will in the end prefer to remove the indicator rather than try to act on the reality.


Decoding of the aggravating factor “The military intervention against Iran”
Iran holds some significant geo-strategic assets in the current crisis, such as its ability to intervene easily and with a major impact on the oil provisioning of Asia and Europe (by blocking the Strait of Ormuz), on the conflicts in progress in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention the possible recourse to international terrorism. But besides these aspects, the growing distrust towards Washington creates a particularly problematic situation. Far from calming both Asian and European fears concerning the accession of Iran to the statute of nuclear power, a military intervention against Iran would result in an quasi-immediate dissociation of the European public opinions [6] which, in a context where Washington has lost its credibility in handling properly this type of case since the invasion of Iraq, will prevent the European governments from making any thing else than follow their public opinions. In parallel, the rising cost of oil which would follow such an intervention will lead Asian countries, China first and foremost, to oppose this option, thus forcing the United States (or Israel) to intervene on their own, without UN guarantee, therefore adding a severe military and diplomatic crisis to the economic and financial crisis.


Relevant factors of the American economic crisis
LEAP/E2020 anticipate that these two non-official decisions will involve the United States and the world in a monetary, financial, and soon economic crisis without precedent on a planetary scale. The ‘monetarisation’ of the US debt is indeed a very technical term describing a catastrophically simple reality: the United States undertake not to refund their debt, or more exactly to refund it in "monkey currency". LEAP/E2020 also anticipate that the process will accelerate at the end of March, in coincidence with the launching of the Iranian Oil Bourse, which can only precipitate the sales of US Treasury Bonds by their non-American holders.

 

In this perspective, it is useful to contemplate the following information 7: the share of the debt of the US government owned by US banks fell down to 1,7% in 2004, as opposed to 18% in 1982. In parallel, the share of this same debt owned by foreign operators went from 17% in 1982 up to 49% in 2004.
--> Question: How comes that US banks got rid of almost all their share of the US national debt over the last years?

 


Moreover, in order to try to avoid the explosion of the "real-estate bubble" on which rests the US household consumption, and at a time when the US saving rate has become negative for the first time since 1932 and 1933 (in the middle of the "Great Depression"), the Bush administration, in partnership with the new owner of the US Federal Reserve and a follower of this monetary approach, will flood the US market of liquidities.


Some anticipated effects of this systemic rupture
According to LEAP/E2020, the non-accidental conjunction of the Iranian and American decisions, is a decisive stage in the release of a systemic crisis marking the end of the international order set up after World War II, and will be characterised between the end of March and the end of the year 2006 by a plunge in the dollar (possibly down to 1 Euro = 1,70 US Dollars in 2007) putting an immense upward pressure on the Euro, a significant rise of the oil price (over 100$ per barrel), an aggravation of the American and British military situations in the Middle East, a US budgetary, financial and economic crisis comparable in scope with the 1929 crisis, very serious economic and financial consequences for Asia in particular (namely China) but also for the United Kingdom [8], a sudden stop in the economic process of globalisation, a collapse of the transatlantic axis leading to a general increase of all the domestic and external political dangers all over the world.

For individual dollar-holders, as for trans-national corporations or political and administrative decision makers, the consequences of this last week of March 2006 will be crucial. These consequences require some difficult decisions to be made as soon as possible (crisis anticipation is always a complex process since it relies on a bet) because once the crisis begins, the stampede starts and all those who chose to wait lose.
For private individuals, the choice is clear: the US Dollar no longer is a “refuge” currency. The rising-cost of gold over the last year shows that many people have already anticipated this trend of the US currency.

 


Anticipating… or being swept away by the winds of history
For companies and governments - European ones in particular - LEAP/E2020 has developed in its confidential letter – the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin -, and in particular in the next issue, a series of strategic and operational recommendations which, if integrated in today's decision-making processes, can contribute to soften significantly the "monetary, financial and economic tsunami" which will break on the planet at the end of next month. To use a simple image – by the way, one used in the political anticipation scenario « USA 2010 » [9] -, the impact of the events of the last week of March 2006 on the “Western World” we have known since 1945 will be comparable to the impact of the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 on the “Soviet Block”.

If this Alarm is so precise, it is that LEAP/E2020’s analyses concluded that all possible scenarios now lead to one single result: we collectively approach a "historical node" which is henceforth inevitable whatever the action of international or national actors. At this stage, only a direct and immediate action on the part of the US administration aimed at preventing a military confrontation with Iran on the one hand, and at giving up the idea to monetarise the US foreign debt on the other hand, could change the course of events. For LEAP/E2020 it is obvious that not only such actions will not be initiated by the current leaders in Washington, but that on the contrary they have already chosen "to force the destiny" by shirking their economic and financial problems at the expense of the rest of the world. European governments in particular should draw very quickly all the conclusions from this fact.


For information, LEAP/E2020's original method of political anticipation has allowed several of its experts to anticipate (and publish) in particular : in 1988, the pproaching end of the Iron Curtain; in 1997, the progressive collapse in capacity of action and democratic legitimacy of the European institutional system; in 2002, the US being stuck in Iraq’s quagmire and above all the sustainable collapse of US international credibility; in 2003, the failure of the referenda on the European Constitution. Its methodology of anticipation of "systemic ruptures" now being well established, it is our duty as researchers and citizens to share it with the citizens and the European decision makers; especially because for individual or collective, private or public players, it is still time to undertake measures in order to reduce significantly the impact of this crisis on their positions whether these are economic, political or financial.

LEAP/E2020's complete analysis, as well as its strategic and operational recommendations intended for the private and public actors, will be detailed in the next issues of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, and more particularly in the econd one (issued February 16th, 2006).



1. These decisions were made a few months ago already:
. the information on the creation by the Iranian government of an oil bourse priced in Euros (http://www.mehrnews.com/en/NewsDetail.a ... sID=260851 ) first appeared in Summer 2004 in the specialised press.
. the Federal Reserve announced on November 10, 2005 that it would cease publisging the information concerning M3 from March 23, 2006 onward :
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm

2. By examining Table 13B of the December 2005 Securities Statistics of the Bank for International Settlements entitled International Bonds and Notes (in billions of US dollars), by currency ), one can notice that at the end of 2004 (China not-included), 37.0% of the international financial assets were labelled in USD vs 46,8% in Euros ; while in 2000, the proportion was contrary with 49,6% labelled in USD for 30,1% only in Euros. It indicates that the March 2006 decisions will most probably accelerate the trend of exit-strategy from the dollar.

3. Monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3, M4) are statistical economic indicators. M0 is the value of all currency - here the dollar - that exists in actual bank notes and coins. M1 is M0 + checking accounts of this currency. M2 is M1 + money market accounts and Certificates of Deposits (CD) under $100,000. M3 is M2 + all larger holdings in the dollar (Eurodollar reserves, larger instruments and most non-European nations' reserve holdings) of $100,000 and more. The key point here is that when the Fed stops reporting M3, the entire world will lose transparency on the value of reserve holdings in dollars by other nations and major financial institutions.

4. See his eloquent speech on these aspects before the National Economists Club, Washington DC, November 21, 2002
(http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs ... efault.htm )


5. It should be noticed that the upward trend of the Dollar in 2005 was mostly the result of an interest rate differential which was favourable for the US Dollar, and of the “tax break on foreign earnings” Law (only valid for 1 year) which brought back to the US over $200 billion in the course of 2005.
(source : CNNmoney.com
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/05/news/ec ... as_profits )

6. As regards Europe, LEAP/E2020 wishes to underline that European governments are no longer in line with their opinions concerning the major topics, and in particular concerning the European collective interest. The January 2006 GlobalEurometre clearly highlighted the situation with a Tide-Legitimacy Indicator of 8% (showing that 92% of the panel consider that EU leaders no longer represent their collective interests) and a Tide-Action Indicator of 24% (showing that less than a quarter of the panel thinks EU leaders are capable of translating their own decisions into concrete actions). According to LEAP/E2020, public declarations of support to Washington coming from Paris, Berlin or London, should not hide the fact that the Europeans will quickly dissociate from the US in case of military attack (the GlobalEurometre is a monthly European opinion indicator publishing in the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin 3 figures out of which 2 are public).

7.(source : Bond Market Association, Holders of Treasury Securities: Estimated Ownership of U.S. Public Debt Securities ;
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/28/122315/558 )


8. The United Kingdom indeed owns close to 3,000 billion $ of credits, that is almost three times what countries such as France or Japan hold. (source Bank of International Settlements, Table 9A, Consolidated Claims of Reporting Banks on Individual Countries )

9. Cf. GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin N°1 (January 2006)
Ai de ti Lusitânia, que dominarás em todas as nações...
 

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« Responder #27 em: Março 04, 2006, 01:09:45 am »
Citação de: "Luso"
The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989


Olha o grande Zandinga ressuscitou...já agora quando é que prevêm o "fim do mundo" que é para começar a tratar duns assuntos pendentes 8) ...
 

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« Responder #28 em: Março 04, 2006, 02:11:33 am »
'A cunfia, vou mas e' comecar a comprar euros  :twisted:
Talent de ne rien faire
 

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« Responder #29 em: Março 05, 2006, 04:52:04 pm »
Luso:

Não há que levar muito a sério a probabilidade de o cenário descrito neste texto materializar-se.

Será possível que o aumento do uso do Euro levará a uma queda no uso do Dolár? Com certeza que sim. Mas, é dúvidoso que tanto a curto-prazo, quanto a longo-prazo, o euro venha a substituir o dolár como o instrumento de troca global, e porquê?

O dólar é uma moeda mais antiga, que fáz parte de uma nação politicamente estável e que é a mais poderosa económicamente e militarmente do planeta. E, no momento, o dólar já conta com um grau de penetração na ecónomia global muito superior ao do euro.

A aceitação, e o uso do euro, está dependente da continuidade da existência da EU. Nada nos guarante que a EU continuará a existir, ou que, os países que hoje utilizam o euro como moeda, o continuaram a fazer no futuro. Os mesmos factores não se aplicam ao dólar, pois a possibilidade de tanto a USA deixar de existir como nação, ou de não usar o dólar, são nulas. O dólar sempre será uma moeda mais segura para se usar que o euro.

A correlação que eles fazem entre estabelecimento da bolsa no Irão - Uso do Euro - Guerra contra o Irão - "Dumping" de dólares no mercado - queda do valor do dólar no mercado - impacto na ecónomia - medida preventiva por parte da Reserva Federal Americana, é interessante, mas na minha opinião, e tendo em conta que a fonte desta análize é Francêsa, não passa de ser "desejo mental" de ver a América como nação a entrar numa situação dificíl, do que propriamente descrever o resultado provável  da concretização deste cenário.

Eu acho muito bem que a Reserva Federal não publique os números do M3, pois se realmente se se der uma guerra, deve-se minimizar a possibilidade dos grupos anti-América de uzarem como "arma psicológica", números e factos financeiros distorcidos por retórica política de forma a manipular precepções, e a incentivar um pánico geral nos mercados financeiros, que possam levar a que a curto-prazo se dê um "dumping" de divisas, e de facto se crie uma situação de alta-instabilidade não só na ecónomia Americana, como na ecónomia global. Isto é uma medida preventiva, e responsável por parte da Reserva Federal. No entanto, e da forma com está escrito no texto, os autores pretendem fazer-nos crer o contrário.

E afirmar que a América não pode pagar as dívidas internacionaís que tem é completamente lúdicro. Os Americanos são quem paga menos impostos no mundo ocidental, então a qualquer momento podem aumentar os impostos de forma a pagarem aquilo que devem aos outros. Aliás, quanto maior for o nível de dívidas de uma país, mas interesse têm os países que são os credores desse país para que esse não falhe, pois como puderão recuparar o seu dinheiro doutra forma.

Um pormenor com o qual eu concordo, e no qual eles não elaboram nesta análize, é a possivel crise civilizacional devido à queda de produção de petróleo a nível global.

Será que o mundo já atingiu o auge de produção de petróleo? Será que já estamos na curva decrescente de produção global?

Ninguém sabe ao certo, uns dizem que sim, outros dizem que não, existe muita confusão sobre o problema mais importante que se pôe para todos os governos do mundo moderno.

O petróleo, e até que se desenvolva novas técnologias que substituam o seu uso, é absolutamente necessário ao progresso e sustento da vida moderna. O que vai acontecer ao mundo se já tivermos entrado na curva decrescente de produção global?
"Esta é a ditosa pátria minha amada."