Britain hot on the heels of the Germans

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dremanu

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Britain hot on the heels of the Germans
« em: Julho 20, 2004, 02:08:29 pm »
Britain hot on the heels of the Germans
By Edmund Conway (Filed: 19/07/2004)

Britain is on course to overtake Germany as Europe's biggest economy within a generation, according to research by a leading economist.

The speed at which the British economy and population are growing mean that within 20 years it will regain the European pre-eminence it lost in 1959, Barclays Bank's chief economic adviser, Christopher Smallwood, will argue in a paper to be published this week.

The report comes alongside a host of surveys suggesting Britain's economy is booming and during a week when National Statistics is expected to announce that the British economy grew at a swift pace in the second quarter.

Mr Smallwood, a former Cabinet Office and Treasury economist, acknowledges that the UK's gross domestic product - at about £1,000billion - is currently sizeably smaller than Germany's - which is €2,000billion (£1,335billion).

But the gap will narrow as Germany's working-age population shrinks by 20pc over the next 25 years while the UK's rises slightly. Britain has also become more productive than Germany, the study adds. British productivity is rising by 2pc each year while Germany's is struggling to rise by 1pc a year.

"The assumptions relating to the UK are deliberately cautious," says Mr Smallwood. "Yet even so the British economy steadily closes the gap with Germany until, early in the 2020s, it becomes bigger than Germany - and thereafter the gap continues to widen."

The paper implies that much of Britain's success is due to the structural changes made during the 1980s, which Germany and France are now struggling to emulate in their own economies. The two countries are attempting to take radical and unpopular measures to reform labour laws and pension policies, but they are not proceeding as quickly as hoped.

"But simply to list these measures is to illustrate the mountain Germany has to climb," Mr Smallwood says. "They involve largely deconstructing the social market economy, which is strongly defended by powerful trade unions. Germany will solve its problems in the end, but rebuilding productivity growth will be a long, slow business."

Mr Smallwood's findings may come as a mixed blessing for the Government. Although they underline the economy's continued performance, the statistics make it increasingly difficult to justify the sizeable rebate Britain receives from the European Union each year. The UK was one of Europe's poorest-performing economies when Mrs Thatcher negotiated the payback in the early 1980s.

In 2000, the UK overtook France to be the second-biggest economy in Europe, and its population already generates more wealth per head than both Germany and France. GDP per head is $30,200 in Britain, compared with $29,200 in Germany.

Ernst & Young's Item Club, which uses the Treasury's economic model, says UK GDP will grow by 3.5pc this year and leave the country close to full employment. However, it warns dangerously high household debt and high public spending could cause problems for the government next year.

The quarterly economic review by Deloitte & Touche paints a similar picture, while urging a shake-up in the way the Bank of England sets interest rates to take asset prices more into account.
"Esta é a ditosa pátria minha amada."
 

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fgomes

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« Responder #1 em: Julho 20, 2004, 09:37:36 pm »
Rule Britania...
 

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dremanu

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« Responder #2 em: Julho 21, 2004, 08:42:24 pm »
Citação de: "fgomes"
Rule Britania...


Indeed...a UK enreda por políticas económicas e sociaís diferentes da EU, e continua, robustamente, a crescer económicamente, enquanto o resto está tudo em recessão económica, e com populações a diminuir, etc.

As políticas económicas da EU são uma treta.
"Esta é a ditosa pátria minha amada."
 

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fgomes

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« Responder #3 em: Julho 21, 2004, 09:01:33 pm »
Completamente de acordo. As reformas estruturais realizadas pela Srª Tatcher foram muito importantes. O problema de Portugal e de muitos Países europeus é a incapacidade realizar reformas estruturais e de enfrentar os interesses instalados.
Curiosamente o Reino Unido não faz parte da moeda única e tem muitas reservas em relação ao federalismo europeu...